Friday, 31 August 2012

NRL Round 26 Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm Preview

All attention will turn to Super Saturday this week as the Tigers fight to keep their season alive against the Storm. At the end of this game, the fate of a lot of teams will be known. The Tigers have a mountain to climb as well, even before they begin to think about finals football. It has been a disappointing season to date, despite their horrific injury toll. They have generally had a side that should be in a better position than what they are. They are desperately searching for answers now and cannot afford to switch off for a minute in this game. There has been a lot of questions asked this week of coach Tim Sheens and even his time at the club does appear to be numbered. The equation is simple, win and the pressure is placed on the Raiders to beat the Warriors for a finals spot. However, they also have a poor points difference to worry about. Small steps, get the win and then go from there. Down in Melbourne they are going into this clash on the back of a MNF performance that saw them beat the Sharks in the last minutes. It was a good win to get especially when they played poor football (by their standards) for most of the game. They will have some motivation as there is still a possibility they can steal the Minor Premiership away from the Bulldogs if they were to faulter against the Roosters and the Storm were to win this game. Either way, they are assured a top 2 finish and a home semi final in Week 1 of the Finals. This may lead the Storm to rest a few players that have been doing it tough in recent weeks, none more so than Billy Slater who is appear to cop a knock early in MNF. There is a lot to be answered in this game and interest will be high from all fans of rugby league.


Wests Tigers

The Tigers have again decided to reshuffle their lineup in the hope that it will allow them to get a good combination that allows them to get a win. This week they have not been helped by the injuries that have come at the wrong part of the season for them. There is a reshuffle of players in the backline as Tim Moltzen moves from 5/8, Beau Ryan from fullback to centre and Chris Lawrence from centre to 5/8. It is an interesting move as the Benji-Moltzen halves experiment only lasted 1 week, after working together a few times before. Then again, the halves has been a problem for the Tigers for some time now and Benji Marshall is obviously struggling with playing halfback and needs to go back to 5/8, there is just no one else to fill the 7 jersey (or so it appears). Liam Fulton has suffered an injury and has been ruled out of the side this week. He was already playing hooker in place of Farrah and his place in the side is taken by Masada Iosefa who comes off the bench. Don't be worried about his ability, this bloke can certainly play. The only other change to the side is the promotion of Tom Humble from NSW Cup to fill the vacant spot on the bench. They still have a very capable forward pack but need to prove themselves this week. Perhaps playing at Leichhardt Oval can give them the lift that they need.


Melbourne Storm

It is mentioned above that the Storm may rest a few players in this clash. They are guaranteed to host a home final and can not finish any lower than 2nd, so perhaps this is the best opportunity for them to give their players one more freshen up before the finals. It would make sense, especially after they are going into this game on the back of a very tough MNF game and have a very short turn around. As it is though, the Storm have named a lineup. This has come to be expected as teams participating in MNF generally name the same side as their is minimal time to make a full assessment on injuries before teams are to be submitted on Tuesday afternoon. What coach Craig Bellamy will do though is anyones guess. If they did rest players, they could risk losing some momentum. However with the class of player within their side, you think that this occasion would be highly unlikely.

Recent History
Overall = Tigers 8 - Storm 13
Last 5 games = Tigers 3 - Storm 2
At Leichhardt Oval = Tigers 6 - Storm 2


Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Tigers $2.25 Storm $1.65
Centrebet = Tigers $2.20 Storm $1.70
Sportsbet = Tigers $2.20 Storm $1.70
Betfair = Tigers $2.38 Storm $1.70


Verdict

This game takes on two betting suggestions. If the Storms stars play, the Tigers will lose. If they are rested and left out of the side, then I consider the Tigers to be a big chance of winning. Either way, this game will be a close contest. The one question mark hanging over the Storm is their pack and the Tigers certainly have a decent pack of forwards. This will be a good game to watch and everything is on the line now for the Tigers. 


Suggested Bet

"Big 3" IN - Storm @ $1.70 or Storm 1-12 @ $3.10

"Big 3" OUT - Tigers @ $2.38 (with Betfair) or Tigers 1-12 @ $3.75

Cover all your bases = Either side Under 6.5 points @ $2.90 - It will be a close contest and could even come down to the last kick of the football. If the game plays out this way, this bet could definitely collect for punters.

Good luck!
Scooby

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