Wednesday 1 August 2012

NRL Round 22 Sydney Roosters v St George-Illawarra Dragons Preview

There is only one game this Friday night and that can be put down to the fact that NRL action might take a back seat to the Olympics for a few weeks. True rugby league fans will know though that their interest never wains from a good game of footy, but it appears that they've again been robbed as the Roosters appear in another free-to-air game. These two teams are seemingly out of contention for the Top 8 (only a mathematical chance really) so maybe this game needs to be on a Friday night when there will be a greater focus on what is occurring in London. But then again, think back to the last time these two teams met and you will remember what a fantastic game of football that was witness on one of the greatest days in the Australian and New Zealand calendar, ANZAC Day. The Dragons fought back to win the game in the dying stages and the Roosters were left gobsmacked. Looking at that game you would have thought that the second times these two teams met in 2012 would again be a very important clash. But that is the way the NRL operates and you must be good for the entire season to even think about making the Top 8. But there is money to be won so lets hope we can grab a winner or two from this match. It could be a dour affair but sometimes games that mean nothing can throw up a surprise or two. If you're not focused on watching the events unfolding in London, tune in and see how long you can last in this game. 

Sydney Roosters
With all the problems going on in the eastern suburbs of Sydney, the Roosters have amazingly named an unchanged lineup from last week. It is good to see rookie Roger Tuivasa-Sheck maintain his position on the wing but a lot can be said for the rest of the squad. The only change that is hinted at by coach Brian Smith, is that he may opt to try a different captain with Anasta departing at the end of the season. If Smith is looking to remain at the Roosters for the remainder of his contract, he should start putting under performing players in the squad on notice. But that brings you back to the main point that continues to surface, the players are fed up with Smith. You can see it just in their performances as a very talented roster which is not living up to its potential. Things have to change for the Roosters otherwise they will have to start worrying about avoiding the spoon now that they cannot make the Top 8.

St George-Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons suffered further injury woes after their bruising encounter against the Storm last Friday. As a result, they have lost key players Beau Scott and Jamie Soward. Scott is said to miss the remainder of the season and his place in the centres is taken by Nathan Green. Scott was already a replacement for the injured custodian Matt Cooper, so their depth out wide will now be tested. Nathan Fien comes from the bench into the starting side to replace Soward. As Fien's utility spot is vacated on the bench, Cameron King is called onto the extended bench. Jake Marketo is also added and Leeson Ah Mau is dropped altogether. The Dragons are at a point where each week is almost sudden death. Their fans will be calling for blood if they miss the semi finals and they should look to play towards their strengths. At the moment, it is in their hooker Mitch Rein who is definitely a representative player of the future and his fellow forwards. The Dragons need to play it up the middle of the field and must ensure they are playing tough defence in and around the ruck.

Recent History
Overall = Roosters 9 - Drawn 1 - Dragons 17
Last 5 games = Roosters 1 - Dragons 4
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 8 - Dragons 9

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Roosters $2.65 Dragons $1.50
Centrebet = Roosters $2.50 Dragons $1.55
Sportsbet = Roosters $2.50 Dragons $1.55
Betfair = Roosters $2.72 Dragons $1.56

Verdict
The Roosters season is sliding very fast and as Penrith and Parramatta begin to get a few wins late in the season, they're now in contention of the dreaded wooden spoon. All is not well within the camp either so they will be searching for something in this clash. Another factor working for the Roosters is that they will also be looking to revenge the loss to the Dragons on ANZAC Day. If you haven't already guessed it, I am tipping an upset. Yes the Roosters have been woeful of late but the Dragons aren't exactly at full strength either. Without Soward's kicking game and Scott's solid defence out wide, they will find things tough. Why not take the Roosters at very juicy odds?

Suggested Bet
Roosters @ $2.72 (with Betfair)


Want more value? = Roosters 1-12 @ $4.00 - It would be extremely surprising to see the Roosters really hand it to the Dragons in this game. There won't be much attention drawn to this game so maybe the option for the Roosters to go "under the radar" and win by a narrow margin is appealing to you.


Lead them home = Roosters/Roosters HT/FT Double @ $3.75 - I cannot see the Roosters fighting back from a HT deficit so they're going to have to lead all the way here. If you do want a roughy for this game, also consider Draw/Roosters ($17).

Good luck!
Scooby

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