Friday 10 August 2012

NRL Round 23 Penrith Panther v Canberra Raiders Preview

Sunday footy kicks off with a "dead-rubber" game between two teams who are out of finals contention. Interestingly though, both teams at the moment are at similar stages of their "redevelopment" for 2013 and beyond. The Panthers are still deeply covered in trouble that has them losing players and signing new ones. Players have been on notice for a number of rounds now and coach Ivan Cleary is certainly not going to tolerate a poor attitude or poor performance. It is very intriguing to watch on at what can happen at a club with certain changes that are brought it. They are down at the bottom of the table and are only just staying ahead of the Eels in the race for the dreaded wooden spoon. It would have a severe impact on their rebuilding if they were to win it because the moral would definitely take a hit. Down at the Raiders they are rebuilding but have the pleasure of having a very young and talented roster. Coach David Furner has suffered through a whole heap of speculation about his coaching future but he has pushed through. The disappointing thing for the Raiders though, is their inability to play consistent football. When they have been on this season, they've dominated other teams. Much like they did the Broncos last week. Yet then you look at their result against the Knights in Round 21 and you scratch your head in confusion. It must be extremely frustrating for their fans to have to sit through this each week and not know which football team will show up. That is the job that is ahead of Furner and he will be helped when he gets his squad back to full fitness. They're almost there now so they should look to build, or rebuild their combinations. This game is going to mean a lot more to the fans of each club rather than NRL fans as a whole. But for an average punter, you can always try to make the most out of this situation and go through a "building" stage of your funds.

Penrith Panthers
After a pounding from the Storm, the Panther have decided to only make one change to the starting 13 and one to the bench, along with a few other players shifting around on the extended bench. Being dropped back to the bench is Nigel Plum and his place in the starting side is taken my Matt Robinson, with Cameron Ciraldo shifting back to lock. Shane Shackleton has lost his spot and it is taken by Dayne Weston. It is very surprising to see this move by Cleary, but he is definitely sending a message to his players that he is trying to build something here. He is remaining calm and it can only have a positive effect on his team. Whether or not it is enough for them to get a win in this game remains to be seen. The Panthers should definitely aim to keep the game in the middle of the field as they have a sizeable forward pack. But size doesn't win the game for you and their pack needs to gain a tough edge to them. If they do, the outside backs can have more room to move and the Panthers have very quick outside backs that talents are seemingly going to waste this season.

Canberra Raiders
With a very storng performance against the Broncos on Sunday, Furner has named the same team along with an extended bench. The two players added to their squad is Jarrad Kennedy and Bronson Harrison. You would think that these are the two players to miss out if all players were fit. There isn't too much news floating around about possible withdrawals from their lineup as Joe Picker has been cleared fit to play. The Raiders will be looking to emulate the performance they put on against the Broncos but must remember that they'll have to work for it. Much like the Panthers, they also have a monster pack of forwards which will make the opening minutes of this clash very physical. There is also a set of very talented outside backs but they seem to not get the ball from the halves. Josh McCrone and Sam Williams need to step up and play the traditional role that halves play for the better teams in this competition.

Recent History
Overall = Panthers 30 - Draw 1 - Raiders 29
Last 5 games = Panthers 3 - Raiders 2
At Centrebet Stadium = Panthers 16 - Draw 1 - Raiders 10

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Panthers $2.10 Raiders $1.75
Centrebet = Panthers $2.12 Raiders $1.75
Sportsbet = Panthers $2.12 Raiders $1.75
Betfair = Panthers $2.18 Raiders $1.83

Verdict
The Panther are still building towards next year. They will also have the added advantage of seeing the result in Parramatta's game on Saturday night. No doubt if the Eels were to get a win, the Panthers would lift to another level (just keep that in mind). For what it is worth though, the Raiders are clear favorites. Although I am definitely not confident depending on which Raiders team will turn up. If it is their good one, they should get the win relatively easy.

Suggested Bet
Raiders -2.5 @ $2

Improved defence = Raiders 1-12 @ $3.50 - Going for a little bet from left field here and going to say that the Panther will have a remarkably improved defence this game after their woeful effort last week.

Tri your options out = Raiders Over 6.5 points @ $2.60 - A bit of value on offer here if you think that they will beat the Panther by a little more than a converted try. Its far safer compared to trying to pick a margin.

Good luck!
Scooby

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