Wednesday 29 August 2012

NRL Round 26 Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers Preview

Whilst the NSW viewers will have the pleasure of watching the Rabbutohs-Knights clash on TV, a lot of fans from other clubs not involved in this game will be frantically updating the score from this clash. There is a lot riding on this game and the result could very well inspire other teams on the weekend to winning performances. The Broncos have been on a slide for a long time now and it has seen them plumet down the NRL Power Rankings.  More worrying for Broncos fans at this point of the season is that what exactly is wrong at the club isn't clear at all. Coach Anthony Griffin has been saying in the last two losses at the hands of the Storm and Sea Eagles, that there has been a lot off effort in his sides performances. Effort is great but they are not getting the win. They are one side that is definitely lacking a "killer blow". In years gone by, Lockyer was the player that filled that void but it is time for a new "star" to stand up. They have a great forward pack that is well lead by Sam Thaiday and they are getting over the advantage line with each carry they have. Perhaps their halves are not doing the job required of them. If they are not careful, the Panthers could spring a surprise on them and ruin their title aspirations. The Panthers have been out of contention for some time now and have been building towards 2013 and beyond. Things are seemingly tracking along nicely and it is promising for Panthers fans to see their side so committed when there is little to play for. They have officially avoided the spoon and definitely didn't deserve it, let's just see if they can keep their motivation for one more week. It will certainly make Penrith a happier place to train during the preseason if they did. This game is very crucial for a number of reasons and no doubt there is a lot of money that can be won as well.

Brisbane Broncos
The Broncos are desperate for answers now and there has been a lot of moves within their side to perhaps light a spark that will set get them on a good run towards the finals. Josh Hoffman has been shifted from the wing back to fullback whilst Corey Norman has vacated the fullback position to move back to 5/8. Ben Hunt, the player that has been the 5/8 in recent weeks has gone back to the bench. The vacant wing spot is taken by Dale Copely who makes a return from injury. Unfortunately for the Broncos, it was an experiment that didn't work for them. Alex Glenn made a good return from injury against the Sea Eagles and he is back into the starting side this week in the second row. Ben Te'o has dropped back to the bench and he will definitely add a lot of impact when he comes onto the field. Luke Capewell, Mitchell Dodds and Dunamis Lui are the players that are dropped from the extended bench altogether. So where will the spark come from now for the Broncos? They just need to ensure that they use the space created by the forwards to give their exciting backs room to move.

Penrith Panthers
The Panthers will be relieved when the fulltime siren goes at the conclusion of this game, hopefully though, they will also be excited for 2013. Coach Michael Cleary is definitely sending a message to his players that their performance and off field behaviour will be the deciding factors in their performance here. A unchanged 17 has been named and there is just a minor change to the 18th man this week as Travis Robinson is replace by Ryan Simpkins. Consistency is definitely a key for the Panthers and with Lachlan Coote developing his new role at 5/8 with every performance, it is slowly being worked into their game. They have to work hard now to maintain a consistent performance. Forwards are also the key here. They are a big pack and they will definitely have their work cut out for them here. Their minds may be elsewhere after avoiding the spoon, although with the reputation of Cleary, you would think that this would not be the case.

Recent History
Overall = Broncos 28 - Draw 1 - Panthers 15
Last 5 games = Broncos 3 - Panthers 2
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 8 - Panthers 5

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Broncos $1.22 Panthers $4.50
Centrebet = Broncos $1.23 Panthers $4.35
Sportsbet = Broncos $1.20 Panthers $4.70
Betfair = Broncos $1.24 Panthers $5.00

Verdict
The Broncos have everything to play for against a side that has very little. They are also faced with the possibility that this will be Petero Civoniceva's last home game for the club. It is all in front of them. The Panthers have turned in some very good performances recently and it is a credit to how far they have come. Yes it has been a disappointing season to date but they have a few positives to take away. The Broncos will be too strong at home and desperate to build some momentum heading into the finals. If they get away to a good lead, this could also get a little ugly if the Panthers players switch off.

Suggested Bet
Broncos -12.5 @ $1.90

Winning margin for value = Broncos 13-18 @ $5 - It could very easily get to 19+ ($2.60) but if you are looking for value then this is a good option. If you are looking for a big value but want to play it safe 13+ is @ $1.90 (same as the Suggested Bet).

Welcome back Alex = Alex Glenn First Try @ $15 - He is back in the starting side after a very long lay off and is a very damaging ball runner. Expect him to be a handful for the Panthers and he is always an option when they run the ball to the line.

Good luck!
Scooby

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