Wednesday 8 August 2012

NRL Round 23 Melbourne Storm v Gold Coast Titans Preview

The second of two Friday nights blockbusters occurs south of the boarder as the Storm are at home to the Titans. The Storm have momentarily gotten the form back into their season which can have them scaring the hell out of the opposition. But to put that win into perspective, it was only a win against the Panthers. It was more of the fashion that they went about their work by blowing the opposition off the park. It got them back up into 3rd place and it was a win that was desperately needed. The Titans were climbing the table at a steady rate but they were halted in Round 22 by the high flying Rabbitohs. A few decisions didn't go their way but they were definitely not without a chance despite that. A positive to take away from that game was that they finished the game off very well. Unfortunately, the loss from them and a win from the Tigers caused the Titans to disappear from the Top 8. With only 4 games to go, the Titans must get moving if they are to make the finals. They will need this win desperately if they still harbour those hopes, but are going to be better as they get their team slowly back to full strength. Plenty of teams in recent weeks have let their hopes slip out of their grasp and the Titans fate is in their own hands. The game is there to be won and lost, the team who wants it more will get it. There is plenty on the line here and this game will be a cracker!

Melbourne Storm
There is only one change to a very impressive Storm team last game. Why else would there be a reason to change the lineup other than an enforced one? They have named an extended bench but nothing changes there. Dane Nielsen is out of the game and taking his place back in the centres is Justin O'Neill. He offers plenty of speed to the Storm on the edges so they do not lose any potency in their attack. The Storm forwards have been questioned in recent weeks for allowing opposition forwards to dominate them through the game. It is a very big statement to make but looking back at their performances, such a statement is not far off the mark.  They need to continue to aim up and lead from the front, otherwise the rest of the Storm attack will mean nothing as they will not be given the ball in attacking field positions.
Gold Coast Titans
The Titans are boosted with the naming of Greg Bird on the extended bench but he will only play if he passes a late fitness test. Stay tuned to my twitter feed for information on his inclusion. It is a big one in and around the Titans team because he will off them a lot more agression and toughness in the middle of the field. Other than that, the Titans remain unchanged for this game. They are still not back to 100% fitness but the players that they are getting back and the ones replacing the injured players, are beginning for form the combinations that they need at a crucial point in the season. It is all or nothing and the Titans must formulate a way to win this game. Read the Storm's team news and it is obvious to where the Titans can win this game. It is going to be an interesting contest in the middle of the field to watch.

Recent History
Overall = Storm 5 - Titans 3
Last 5 games = Storm 3 - Titans 2
At AAMI Park = Storm 1 - Titans 0

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.38 Titans $3.10
Centrebet = Storm $1.38 Titans $3.25
Sportsbet = Storm $1.38 Titans $3.10
Betfair = Storm $1.36 Titans $3.70

Verdict
The Titans are very wide in the betting which is surprising. The Storm played well last week but it was against a very poor opponent that is out of contention for the Top 8 and battling to avoid the spoon. But there is also uncertainty over the final lineup for the Titans so perhaps there is something more to the wider prices that first thought. If Bird was to play and the Titans were to remain as per program, I would be more inclined to take them. But that is not the case here and it is hard to go past the Storm for a win here in front of their home fans.

Suggested Bet
Storm @ $1.38

First Try Scorer = Sisa Waqa @ $13 and/or Will Chambers @ $11 - A few weeks ago against the Dragons I tipped these blokes to score first because of Slaters inclusion back into the team. He is an integral part of the ball moving from the halves to the outside backs. Slater is in and both players are a chance of scoring here.

Closer than most think = Storm 1-12 $3.10 - The Titans are a better team than the bookies are suggesting. The Storm will have to work hard for this win here and given that the game could be played at a "semi final intensity", there could be air tight defence.

Good luck!
Scooby

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