Friday 17 August 2012

NRL Round 24 NZ Warriors v Penrith Panthers Preview

The footy fans are lucky this week to get a Sunday that is jammed packed with rugby league action. Unfortunately, the game that is going to kick off proceedings is heading towards a very dour display from both sides. This isn't suggesting that they won't play attacking rugby league but both sides have shown little this season, especially in recent weeks, to suggest anything else will occur. The Warriors had the world at their feet and were in good control of their finals future. Then came a series of woeful performances from them and they have been bundled out of contention. Their coach Brian McClennan has taken the blame but a lot of blame should also be directed to the players. Failure to play consistent football and crucial errors has lead to their demise. It is time for them to focus towards 2013 and beyond. The Panthers have been doing this for some time now but it does seem as though they have a fair way to go. They are currently equal last on the table and in real danger of "winning" the wooden spoon. The amount of momentum and confidence within their squad would increase immensely if they were to avoid the spoon. All of their attention should be focused on this objective from now on. Both sides have their fair share of injuries and nothing more than pride is on the line. Who knows what type of game will be produced here but there is sure to be some points scored. At the end of the day it is an NRL game and that being the case, there is money to be won.

NZ Warriors
The Warriors are already under a mountain of pressure due to their form in recent weeks but things are not looking any better for them. Amazingly, former Eels coach Stephen Kearney has been linked to the coaching job. Maybe that can have a positive effect on the squad to get them motivated to perform. They have unfortunately lost fullback Kevin Locke for the remained of the season and his place at the back is taken by Carlos Tuimavave. That is the only change to the starting side but Pita Godinet has been brought onto an extended bench of 5 and will probably be the player that misses out. Their forward pack remains the same and interestingly so does the bench. Whilst they have a very imposing pack, they have failed to dominate the opposition this season. Even worse for the Warriors is the fact that their bench is now not offering as much as it was earlier on in the season. This is something that coach Brian McClennan accepted the blame for, yet there has been no change. Perhaps an attitude change would also be helpful in defence. Late news (Saturday afternoon) is that Konrad Hurrell is out of this clash and there has been no announcement on his replacement but it will be posted on my twitter feed when news comes to hand.

Penrith Panthers
The Panthers have unfortunately lost Michael Jennings to suspension but his place in the centres is taken by Travis Robinson, the twin brother of Raiders try scoring machine Reece.  Expect him to have his hands full against any outside back for the Warriors and although it isn't his debut, he will certainly be tested through. That is the only change to the starting side from last week. They have gone against naming an extended bench this weekend which is very surprising considering they are travelling to NZ. All players named on the bench were present for the loss to Canberra. Coach Ivan Cleary is very persistant with Lachlan Coote at 5/8 and whilst he is playing relatively good football there, you cannot help but think this is a plan for 2013 and beyond. It does help though when you have the quality of player like Michael Gordon to full the fullbacks role. Unfortuantely they will be losing him next year. Their forwards will be told to take the game to an under performing Warriors pack and be sure they this will be a great battle. If they can get on top of them, they will be in a good position to win the game with 20 minutes to go.

Recent History
Overall = Warriors 14 - Draw 1 - Panthers 14
Last 5 games = Warriors 4 - Panthers 1
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 7 - Panthers 6

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Warriors $1.33 Panthers $3.40
Centrebet = Warriors $1.33 Panthers $3.45
Sportsbet = Warriors $1.35 Panthers $3.25
Betfair = Warriors $1.40 Panthers $3.45

Verdict
You would be a very brave person to invest some money on the Warriors after their recent form but you would be even crazier to back the Panthers. In this clash the Warriors are the lesser of two evils. They should be too strong in this game and salvage some of the pride that is left in their season. The game is played on their home ground and although there is a lot of uncertainty about their coach, the players should want this win more than anything. It is time for them to work towards 2013 and some players may even be playing for their contracts. Be sure that this game will be high scoring as both sides lack any commitment in defence. 

Suggested Bet
Warriors @ $1.40 (with Betfair)

Go a margin for value = Warriors 13+ @ $2.30 - It will be a high scoring game and in recent weeks the Warriors have been embarrassed beyond recognition. They will look to bounce back here and finish the season strong. They have the ability to score a lot of points too.

Big beast = Manu Vatuvei First Try @ $7 - Not much value offered but I had to change the selection of Hurrell once news surfaced of his removal from the starting side. The Beast will be storming over any winger in his path.

Good luck!
Scooby

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