Wednesday 15 August 2012

NRL Round 24 Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters Preview

Super Saturday is started down in Canberra this weekend as the Raiders cling to a very small, semi final chance. They're still in with a shot and at this point of the season it is better to be playing for a spot in the Top 8, as opposed to playing to avoid the spoon. That is the situation that the Roosters are faced with. Their season has been over for some time and it can be classified as a real disappointment. They have a very young and talented roster that is not living up to their potential. Then again, neither are the Raiders. Both sides have struggled for consistency and failed to build any solid combinations within their side. It is a shame for both sets of fans because at the beginning of the season, both were tipped to do well. Similarly, both sides have coaches that have question marks hanging over their head. Roosters coach Brian Smith is said to have lost some (or even all) of the playing ground, only two years after he got them to the grand final. David Furner's future remains at Canberra but the whispers of a sacking have silenced for the moment as Ricky Stuart has signed elsewhere. Furner's problem lies within getting his players up for each week and not believing their own hype because when they're on, they're extremely hard to beat. The Roosters certainly have potential, but are not as dangerous as the Raiders. Watching them play in recent weeks, it is clearly evident that their players minds are elsewhere. Whereas the Raiders looked focus on the finals (for now), but any momentum built with definitely help their progress into 2013. It probably isn't going to be a great game to watch, yet it could be value to gain and high scoring.

Canberra Raiders
The Raiders have named the same side that got home over the Panthers by 10 points last round. In saying that, Dane Tilse was a late withdrawal from that clash as he rushed to his wife's side for the birth of their first child, but they now have a healthy child and he will line up in this game. Jarrad Kennedy has been named on the extended bench but it is expected that he will drop off the bench. The Raiders did struggle in parts against the Panthers but can take plenty of positives away from that win. Their halves were good in steering them around the field, although it took them a while to get into the game. The real strength of the Raiders is their forwards and they're are at their best when their forwards dominate. In saying that, they can often get ahead of themselves in games and diverse away from their structure. Keep the contest in the forwards and get the ball to outside back in space...sounds easy enough. Just depends which Raiders team shows up, they'll definitely need the right attitude.

Sydney Roosters
There are a few changes to the Roosters this week that can be seen as just a reshuffle of the defence. Tautau Moga has shifted from the wing into the centres at the expense of Joseph Leilua who has been dropped out of the side. To cover for Moga's move, Adam Henry comes onto the wing. Jack Bosden comes from the bench into the starting side at second row, at the expense of Brad Takairangi, who has shifted back to the bench. Daniel Mortimer has been dropped and Nafe Seluini is recalled to fill the utility roll for the Roosters. It is an interesting move by Smith as starting hooker Jake Friend generally remains on the field and moves into the back row. The Roosters just need to focus on playing simple football, that is mistake free. They were woeful against the Eels, especially when they were a chance of coming back into the game. They failed to do so and crucial mistakes let the Eels grab a hold of the game. Like the Raiders, they have a very strong forward pack that is definitely capable of creating momentum, they just need to relise it. Then again, their forwards can often be the culprits of the silly mistakes.

Recent History
Overall = Raiders 23 - Roosters 29
Last 5 games = Raiders 1 - Roosters 4
At Canberra Stadium = Raiders 9 - Roosters 6

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Raiders $1.45 Roosters $2.85
Centrebet = Raiders $1.45 Roosters $2.85
Sportsbet = Raiders $1.45 Roosters $2.80
Betfair = Raiders $1.45 Roosters $3.05

Verdict
The Raiders are still in with a chance and could perhaps be inspired by a loss to the Tigers on Friday night. If they want to make the finals and be respected, they should at least beat the Roosters in this clash. They are at home and are playing a side that lacks a lot of confidence. The Roosters shouldn't trouble the Raiders too much here, so expect this score to get out to a decent total. Not much more to say, the price offered on the Raiders is overs! Get on!

Suggested Bet
Raiders @ $1.45

Cover up on the line = Raiders -7.5 @ $1.90 - Maybe this should have been the suggested bet as it adds a little more value to any bet. As you will see below, this game could get ugly, this just ensures you are cover if they win by 8 points or more.

Raiding the scoreboard = Raiders 13+ @ $2.40 - Finally a reasonable price on the Raiders. Bookmakers must be having a week off. If the Raiders get away to an early lead, the Roosters might shut off. Yes the Raiders struggled to score points against the Panthers, but they are back at home this week.

Good luck!
Scooby

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