The last day of Super Sunday kicks off across the ditch in NZ as the woeful Warriors are at home trying to salvage any pride that they can before the seasons end. They are hosting a Raiders side that has come from nowhere to rocket into the Top 8 and be a contender to still be alive in Week 1 of the Finals. If the season had gone to plan as everyone had predicted, the roles would be a little different to what we are seeing here and it would be the Warriors with their attention on the finals. Things have not gone according to plan and the Warriors have had a season to forget as their coach has been sacked and their players appear to be putting in minimal effort in their performances. Their crowds are down and they are struggling to gain any interest as they are almost becoming a laughing stock of the NRL. They were tipped to be real contenders after being runners up last season to Manly. They even still have a very talented roster so there is really no excuse to their current predicament. They could take something away from the Raiders because it was only a few weeks ago that they appeared to be dead and burried, but they have clawed their way back to be contenders. At the end of the day, you just have to be in the Top 8 to be a contender and thats exactly what the Raiders will be doing. They will know going exactly what they have to do. If they Tigers are winners on Saturday night, they will need a win to get in ahead of them and their result will also be impacted by the Broncos on Friday night. If they want to take the easier option, they can just win this game and then there will be no troubles in the world and they can focus on the finals. Based on the Warriors recent performances, they will not have too much do to get a win. As punters, we should aim to go out on Sunday with a bang and try to get a few bets up.
NZ Warriors
Stand in coach Tony Iro has wielded the axe on a few under performing stars this week in their last game and perhaps the last time he is in charge of this side. Konrad Hurrell returns in the centres to takes Lewis Brown's (and his accustomed) position back as Brown is dropped back to the bench. It is interesting to note that he is departing the club at the end of the season to link up with former coach Ivan Cleary at the Panthers. Another departing player, James Maloney has been dropped to the bench and his place at 5/8 is taken by Feleti Mateo who moves from second row. No doubt there is some angst at the club over Maloney's departure to the Roosters in 2013 as he signed this deal a year out from the end of this current contract. Mateo's spot in the second row is taken by Simon Mannering who makes a return from injury. Halfback Shaun Johnson is also out of this game but he is probably out due to injury after suffering a sickening head knock in the Dragons game. Pita Godinet is the new half after moving from hooker. Alehana Mara promoted from the interchange to hooker to cover for Godinet's move. The final change to this side is the recall of Ben Matulino into the starting side at prop and the demotion of Russell Packer back to the bench. Iro has named a bench of 7 so there will be a few players to drop off prior to kick off. Maybe the Warriors should aim to lift their performance to reward those few fans who will turn up to this game to cheer them on. Please also note that a great clubman, Michael Luck, is playing his final NRL and retiring at the end of the season. If they do not win for the few fans that will turn up to watch this game, they should win for him.
Canberra Raiders
The Raiders are flying high at the moment and have found some form of consistency within their lineup. This is no doubt a different side to the one that we saw for the middle part of this season. There is no need for coach David Furner to make changes to his lineup for this game after a very dominating performance against the Bulldogs last Friday. This is a very young and talented roster that is starting to believe in their potential. But they will be tested here. Yes it is only the Warriors but it is a must win game that will have the pressure on them. Their young halves are starting to come into their own and their outside backs have speed to burn and can definitely finish a good move when needed. A bonus is they can also get on the end of an attacking kick and score a try. This form of successful play is only created though off the back of dominating forward play. They have some serious size up front that isn't afraid of a battle. If they are on, they can easily dominate an opposition back but they also have to remember that their job also crosses over into defence. At times that can switch off and Furner has to ensure that his bench do not drop the intensity when they come onto the field.
Recent History
Overall = Warriors 12 - Raiders 15
Last 5 games = Warriors 2 - Raiders 3
At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 9 - Raiders 5
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Warriors $2.50 Raiders $1.55
Centrebet = Warriors $2.47 Raiders $1.57
Sportsbet = Warriors $2.50 Raiders $1.55
Betfair = Warriors $2.60 Raiders $1.58
Verdict
The Raiders will know what lies ahead of them before they take the field. If they are going to play on into the finals, they need to win this game with a dominating display. If they don't they risk their position into next week. Even though the Raiders beat the Bulldogs in impressive fashion last week, I am still not sold on their squad. Then again, they are only facing the Warriors here. Who knows, maybe the coaching shake up and a host of changes to their squad will yield a better performance. But for the sake of placing a bet, you cannot go past the Raiders in this game, based only on how poor the Warriors have been. I do expect this contest to be a close one.
Suggested Bet
Raiders @ $1.58 (with Betfair)
Close call = Raider 1-12 @ $3.10 - If the Raiders do win this game, they will want to win it by 13+, but the Warriors may have other ideas. Maybe an improved performance is on the cards and it may be closer than people think.
Ferguson Success = Blake Ferguson First Try @ $13 - The reason for this bet is his opponent, Ben Henry. He is a second rower playing out in the centres and he has been caught out a few times this year. Expect Ferguson to make it no easier for him.
Good luck!
Scooby
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