Wednesday 1 August 2012

NRL Round 22 North Queensland Cowboys v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Preview

Super Saturday finishes off with a great match between the Cowboys at the Sea Eagles up in Townsville. Make no mistake about it, this game is very important this week to the make up of the Top 8. Both teams are inside the 8 and will be looking to nail down a finals spot with a win here. They're also level on 26 and a good win here could also have an impact on the "For and Against" for both teams. Fast forward a few weeks and these two teams could also be playing sudden death footy in Week 1 of the semi finals. Only time will tell but they should only worry about controlling things here. The Cowboys were gallant in defeat against a stronger and inform Bulldogs side who were at home. They were not without some promise in that match but were just lacking a killer blow. Maybe they had it and they were just held very well by the Bulldogs. They are a dangerous team though and shouldn't be treated lightly by anyone. Especially considering they have Thurston and Bowen in their side playing behind a good forward pack. The Sea Eagles are a similar team that seems to ooze a little more quality than the Cowboys. Yet they haven't been too dominate this season. They can push the big side in close games and will surely rise to the occasion here, although they weren't exactly convincing in their come-from-behind victory against the Warriors in Perth. Some might even say they were lucky as the Warriors gave up another 18 point leading in consecutive weeks. Perhaps it is still that attitude problem that was suggested in the Power Rankings all those weeks ago. They will want to be on song here, because facing a red hot Cowboys team at home could have a bad effect on the momentum they will look to build in the run for the semis.

North Queensland Cowboys
The best thing for a team that is aiming to play consistent football is that they have again named the same team. As mentioned above, the Cowboys were not without promise last week. They're beginning to play better and more consistent football that isn't solely relying on the skill of Thurston. They are now having a platform set for them early by their monster forward pack that is able to make meters with ease up the middle of the field. Hooker Aaron Payne also has the ability to create extra space and they also seem to lift a level when replacement hooker Anthony Mitchell comes onto the field. Having a good bench is also a strength of the Cowboys. This is going to be a great physical contest so why not take it to the Manly pack early and assert their dominance? It will certainly be something they look to do in big, semi final matches.


Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
The great news for the Sea Eagles this week is the return of Brett Stewart at fullback, which also means that they're back to full strength. He immediately shifts back to the number 1 jersey and Dean Whare, who has been good in his absence, moves back to an extended bench. Jason King has been named but there is a lot of doubt over whether or not he will play. He suffered a back knock to the chest last Saturday and it looked at one point as though he may not be able to fly back. Darcy Lussick looks the likely replacement for King so another player named on the extended bench will come into the final 17. The bench contains 7 at this stage so there is definitely a lot of things to be sorted out before their final squad is named. Having their halves firing will also be important to Manly and playing off the back of a match winning performance, Cherry-Evans will look to get his team over the line again in this match.


Recent History
Overall = Cowboys 7 - Sea Eagles 11
Last 5 games = Cowboys 2 - Sea Eagles 3
At Diary Farmers Stadium = Cowboys 5 - Sea Eagles 4

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.72 Sea Eagles $2.15
Centrebet = Cowboys $1.77 Sea Eagles $2.10
Sportsbet = Cowboys $1.75 Sea Eagles $2.10
Betfair = Cowboys $1.81 Sea Eagles $2.18


Suggested Bet
Cowboys -3.5 @ $1.95


Value in the margin = Cowboys 1-12 @ $3 - This is going to be a good, tough and close game. Better for punters is that there is also a lot of value to be had in trying to pick a margin. For those who are thinking the Sea Eagles 1-12 (it'll be surprising to see a win 13+) they're at $3.50.


First Try Scorer = Kalifa Faifai Loa @ $11 - He will be playing outside Brent Tate on the right hand side and the Cowboys certainly do like to kick to the corners when close to the line. Tate also has the ability to draw in two defenders and get an offload away if needed (if they aren't scoring off kicks).

Good luck!
Scooby

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