Well here it is folks, the game that teams had set out to make at the beginning of November 2011. A game that would win you the competition and crowned Premiers for season 2012. A lot of events have happened in season 2012 and all that becomes meaningless, as 80 minutes is what stands between these two teams and the "holy grail". The Bulldogs have been the "Cinderella Story" as they missed the finals in 2011. They acquired Des Hasler in a controversial move from the Sea Eagles and underwent a massive transformation. When you think about it, he inherited exactly the same squad that was under performing and got his players to buy into his coaching theory. A lot of people questioned whether or not the Bulldogs could make season 2012 successful and very few would have thought that they could have made it this far, let alone stand a chance of winning the competition. Then during the season, Ben Barba emerged as one of the real superstars of the modern game. He was rightly awarded the Dally M for NRL Player of the Year and has set a new benchmark for opposition players to reach. Many perceived his weakness in defence and defusing high kicks. But he has worked hard on his game and under Hasler's guidance, he has made this one of his strengths. It is fitting that he goes against a player who has made the number 1 jersey his own in all area's of football, both at club and representative level, Billy Slater. He would be a player that Barba would openly admit, he watched video's of and tried to model his game on him. Slater is one of the Storm's "Big 3" and is a leader of his team and a big reason why they are where they are today. Of course his season has been limited by injury but he has still pushed on. While he may not be at 100%, he is still able to dominate games in ways that only he knows how. Supporting him is the "other two", Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk. Each of the "Big 3" bring their unique, individual brilliance to this side that allows them to get a victory in the toughest of situations. Then again, they are also very well supported by the players around them. Then of course, you have the coach, Craig Bellamy. While he didn't succeed at representative level, you cannot doubt his ability to coach and transform very ordinary players into workhorses. He brings out the best in all of his players and it shows in their attitude and enthusiasm in playing for him. No matter what is written, there is also the added motivation of the Storm having their Premiership titles stripped after their breaches of the NRL's salary cap. The "Big 3" & coach Craig Bellamy were all present when the premierships were won and stripped. They are saying that it is in the past but what would be a better way to show that they are over it then by winning here? All 24 players that take the field on Sunday will have their eyes on the big prize and so should punters. You may get sick of all that is written in the lead up to this game but enjoy it for what it is, a great spectacle where you can win yourself some money.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
The Bulldogs come into this game off 3 very impressive victories, but more importantly, the last two were in the finals against sides that could always post as a danger. They were tougher and stronger than Manly whilst they grounded the Rabbitohs into the ground and made sure that they didn't get up once they were knocked down and out of the contest. Their forwards faced two very strong opposition packs but lifted above it all to assert their dominace on the game. Obviously, a lot comes down to the ball movement of the side around the field and the room it opens up, but each week their defence is growing stronger. In the two semi final games thus far, they have kept the opposition sides scoreless in the second half and at this point of the season, defence wins you the games. They have been tenacious in their hits and the opposition halves are placed under more pressure as their forwards are not going over the advantage line consistently. They will have their work cut out for them this week attempting to halt the Storm forwards and Cameron Smith. If there is any player within this competition who knows how to get over the advantage line, it is him. Considering how well Isaac Luke played, Smith will be loving the opportunity he gets in this game. The Bulldogs lineup remains the same and they have been a model for consistency this season. They also have a far stronger bench going into this game and Hasler interchanges his forwards very well. Again, Dene Halatau has been named as the sides 18th man and with the Canterbury side being knocked out of the NSW Cup, perhaps he may be a chance of playing. There were whispers around last week that Corey Payne might have been a late withdrawal but this never occurred.
Melbourne Storm
The Storm are driven by the "Big 3" but they are also complimented very well by the players around them. One of the real strengths of the Storm side this season is their outside backs and the speed and agility they possess. They are a handful to deal with at the worst of times, the last thing you need as a defender is to try and stop them when they have room to move. They have this big, sweeping play where Slater comes from the back and is an extra ball player which creates room for the centres and wingers to move. This is a play that they will look to use from the opening minutes. Closer into the ball you have some very big forwards that are lead very well by Smith (sorry to mention it again but it is a major factor!). Proctor, Bromwich and Manu are all underrated players that could be considered as missing links when they are off the field, especially Proctor and Bromwich. Proctor was named to start from the bench last week but was called into the starting side at the expense of Manu. Bromwich is always strong up front and partners Bryan Norrie very well. Todd Lowrie is named at lock this week and could be considered a possible problem when they have him, Smith and Hinchcliffe on the field together. Whilst they are very good defenders, they are not an imposing side and wouldn't exactly strike fear in opposition ball runners. Then again, the way that the Storm dominate the ruck, they become a more mobile side and can play the game at their own pace. The Storm have named an extended bench of 8 this week and the new additions are Rory Kostjayson, Mahe Fonua, Siosaia Vave and Anthony Quinn. Sisa Waqa was a late withdrawal from the side that played the Sea Eagles and he copped a knock late in the warm up to his knee. His place in the game was taken by Fonua and he would probably replace him again if he was unfit to take the field.
Recent History
Overall = Bulldogs 15 - Storm 14
Last 5 games = Bulldogs 2 - Storm 3
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 0 - Storm 3
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Bulldogs $2.10 Storm $1.75
Centrebet = Bulldogs $2.05 Storm $1.80
Sportsbet = Bulldogs $2.02 Storm $1.82
Betfair = Bulldogs $2.16 Storm $1.85
Verdict
This is arguably one of the closest and hardest Grand Finals that we have witnessed in recent years. You can make a case for both sides winning the game and it could almost certainly come down to the last kick of the ball. I encourage you to go with your gut feeling and use this guide, like I hope you have use all of my NRL previews, to make up your own mind on the game. For what it is worth though, I am going to back the Bulldogs for a number of reasons. Firstly, they have a far superior forward pack and capable of dominating the Storm forwards throughout. They were the reason why the Storm faced a weakened Manly side in their qualifying final. Secondly, their ball movement is second to none. They promote the ball to their outside backs through attacking forward play and they have the ability to create holes in the defence with a simple pass. Thirdly, I believe they posses a stronger defence. Whilst you could say that it is alarming that all of the points conceded have been in the first half, they are able to tighten up in the middle of the field and force teams either to the outside or into mistakes. I am certainly not discounting the Storm as a genuine threat in this game. I expect the "Big 3" to rise to another level and bring the rest of their side to their level. But it is extremely hard for me to go past the Bulldogs and there is a lot of value surrounding them.
Suggested Bet
Bulldogs @ $2.16
No Margin for error = Bulldogs 1-12 @ $3 - Backing the Bulldogs and backing a close contest, then this is the margin that you would want to see. This also offers plenty of value. It would be very surprising to see a 13+ margin unless one side gets away and the other gives up towards the end of the match.
Line up for a double = Bulldogs +2.5/Over 36.5 @ $3.60 - It does seem like I am being very optimistic in choosing the total score to be over 37 points but winners of the GF in recent years have averaged around 30-points. In saying this, defence could be highlighted but there is plenty of value here. A small note, Bulldogs +2.5/Under 36.5 is @ $3.25.
Clive Churchill Medal = Be very careful when picking this option. I say this because this award is chosen by Australian Test Selectors and the best player in the match may not always be favoured because selectors might not want a non-Australian player to win the award. I am referring to the issue a few years ago when the Storm "won" the GF and Cronk was named CCM when many thought that Kiwi Adam Blair was undoubtedly the best Storm player. So where does this leave us in a selection? You have to pick a player that will have an enormous impact on the game and could prove the different in winning. Immediately the Storm's "Big 3" pop into your mind if the Storm were going to get a win and outside of them I could only think of Ryan Hoffman for the CCM as he won MOM honors in their Week 1 victory over the Rabbitohs. For the Bulldogs, you couldn't go past Ben Barba. He has been a great influence on his side but I think that if the Bulldogs were to win, it could be one of their forwards who get the award. This is where the value becomes enticing but many of them are not Australian born players. Of those, I would favor James Graham, Greg Eastwood and Frank Pritchard. Michael Ennis and Josh Reynolds would also play an influential role in the victory and for a smokey, Krisnan Inu. He was great against the Rabbitohs and will need a big performance to hold his opposition centre down.
Billy Slater $8
Cooper Cronk $5.50
Cameron Smith $7
Ryan Hoffman $11
Ben Barba $6
James Graham $11
Greg Eastwood $21
Michael Ennis $21
First Try Scorers = You would have to choose one or two players from both side here to allow for a few options. The Storm have a very good sweeping play to their right hand side which offers Will Chambers ($13) and Justin O'Neill ($13). This is the same play that is mentioned above and Slater comes from no where to be an extra ball player or running option. Going on the defensive lapses from the Dogs I would also like a nibble at Cameron Smith ($21) close to the line. For the Bulldogs, options are running all over the field and first and foremost you are going to have to take a look at Ben Barba ($7) although he does appear to be a little short. I also like the Bulldogs right hand side attack that features Krisnan Inu ($13) and Sam Perrett ($13) as they like to kick across to this side when the option is available. This is also the weaker side for the Storm side defensively, as well as in the air. For a value bet for the Bulldogs, second rower Josh Jackson ($26) is good close to the line and does always pop up on a kick chase when attacking the line.
Good luck!
Scooby
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