So here it is folks, the business end of the season where everyones focus turns to 8 teams that have played well enough throughout the season to earn a shot at the big prize, the premiership. For the first time in a number of years though, the NRL is using a different finals system that is "fairer" to those sides that finish in the top 4. They get a "second chance" if they lose in Week 1 of the Finals as well as home field advantage in Week 2 if they were to lose. It is definitely a good improvement and now has teams playing right to the end of the season to benefit them over others. 2012 has seen a high level of rugby league and Finals football is always going to throw up a great contest. It seems fitting that the clash to open the finals in 2012 is a clash between two sides that have a lot in common. A lot was made in the 2011 off-season about the switch of Des Hasler from the Sea Eagles to the Bulldogs. Not many people expected him to work the wonders that he has with this squad but he has certainly earned his billing as "Coach of the Year" for 2012. To go along with that accolade, he has also transformed fullback Ben Barba from a player lacking in confidence to one of the best players in the game at the moment and the current Dally M winner. So what do the Sea Eagles have to say about this? For starters, they are the other form side of the competition and a team that everyone is hoping to avoid (until the Grand Final at least). They have players that have been in this situation before and lift for the big games. They also know how to get a win in the big games. More importantly, they also have a great set of halves that are leading their side very well at the moment. So are they as unbeatable as everyone thinks? Certainly not, but if a team was to beat them, they must be prepared to play a great game of mistake free rugby league. This contest is going to be a very bruising encounter as well as a tight contest. As a fan, I cannot wait and as a punter I will be looking deeper into this contest to pick a winner and get the weekend off to a great start.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
The Bulldogs bounced back last week from a shock loss to the Raiders in Round 25, to trounce the Roosters convincingly. Whilst it was a very dominating display, there was a time within the first half where the Bulldogs looked on shaky ground. The Roosters fought back early and got the score back to 12-10 and looked well in the contest, that is until the Bulldogs kicked into second gear and then scored 32-unanswered points. They put on quiet a show and it was a great way for them to win the Minor Premiership for 2012. As quick as they were presented the shield, the players and coaches were touting the phrase, "the job is only half done" and "we are still not the form side heading towards the finals". But that is what works well for Des Hasler and his squad. They will go into this match generally believing that they have a point to prove...and they do! In terms of the squad, exactly the same side has been named but Dene Halatau has been added to an extended bench as he has recovered from a leg injury. He was one of the in form players for the Bulldogs this season before he was injured. Yet as the NRL would have it, Josh Jackson has stepped up in his absence and proved himself as one of the up and coming players for the Bulldogs. Halatau will find it very tough to get back into the side as a starting player. The Bulldogs have named 6 on the extended bench so there is 2 players that have to drop off prior to kick off. Leading into this game you will also here a lot of people say the Bulldogs "do not have the halves to win the comp" and whilst it is relevant, I find it hard to agree. The style that the Bulldogs play with each game does not warrant halves dominating the games as they traditionally would. Their play involves the forwards having a more dominating role on moving the ball to the outside backs. The Sea Eagles are going to be prepared to counteract this but expect the Bulldogs to have something up their sleeve.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
As mentioned several times above, the Sea Eagles are the side to beat. They are getting their squad back to full fitness and have a pair of young halves that are experience well beyond what their careers suggest. It does help them though, when they are playing behind a forward pack that is bruising in defence and explosive in attack. Teams are genuinely going to fear the Sea Eagles with the side that they are able to field each week. They will just have to hope that they do not receive and more injuries to their side, otherwise their squads depth will definitely be tested. Like the Bulldogs, their squad is also unchanged heading into this clash. More importantly, their bench remains the same. They can get some good minutes out of their starting side but when their props have to come off the field and they need the intensity maintained, these blokes can do it. The forwards will also have to go out their a prove a point against a side that relies on their forwards more than most. Defensively, the Sea Eagles have the stock to dominate within the middle of the field and force the ball out wide. That is where the Sea Eagles will also excel with the presence of Jamie Lyon and Steve Matai out wide. They can shut down their opposing players with or without the ball and limit the potency of teams when it matters most.
Recent History
Overall = Bulldogs 49 - Draw 5 - Sea Eagles 61
Last 5 games = Bulldogs 2 - Sea Eagles 3
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 3 - Sea Eagles 5
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Bulldogs $2.10 Sea Eagles $1.75
Centrebet = Bulldogs $2.15 Sea Eagles $1.73
Sportsbet = Bulldogs $2.10 Sea Eagles $1.75
Betfair = Bulldogs $2.20 Sea Eagles $1.81
Sportingbet = Bulldogs $2.15 Sea Eagles $1.73
Verdict
This is going to be a very tough game to pick and you can state a case for both sides winning this game. The Bulldogs were last start winners over the Sea Eagles at Brookvale and have Des Hasler on their side, a coach who knows the Manly players inside out. It showed in their two battles with them this year. The games have always been balanced and in the second game, it was the Bulldogs who used everything they had to get them a win. The way both sides were speaking in press conferences this week, you would think that they are both $2.45 outsiders. But Manly are the favorites and they are deserving of that tag. They have a class of player in their side that is experienced and will lift to another level in this game. It may well be something that the Bulldogs players are yet to face. I am going to say the Sea Eagles, but this game will be a close one and if the bounce of the ball goes their way, the Bulldogs could very well prevail.
Suggested Bet
Sea Eagles @ $1.81 (very reluctantly!)
Tri for your bet = Tri Bet Either Side Under 6.5 points @ $2.40 - It is all mentioned above, this game is going to be extremely close. It could even go down to the last play of the game. If you do not want to make a call on the game, this is the bet for you. Either way, it certainly spells value for us as punters.
No Wright option = Dean Whare First Try @ $11 - This guy will be going up against Jonathan Wright and in the last few weeks, the Bulldogs left hand side has been exposed in a big way. Expect the Sea Eagles to seek a try out on this side of the field early.
Good luck!
Scooby
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