Thursday 20 September 2012

NRL Week 3 Finals Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs Preview

This game has been billed as Sydney's Grand Final and it could almost be with the quality of football that lies ahead in this game. Both sides are blessed with two of the biggest supporter bases around and all fans will be coming out of the wood work to get a glimpse of their side in action. The crowd will be packed and rightly so as this game could very well be one of the games of the season. Heading into this season, you would not have picked either side as a team that would be playing for a spot in the Grand Final but thanks to two incoming coaches to the club, the attitude and level of football has changed for the better. The Bulldogs are undoubted deserved of their place in this match but so to are the Rabbitohs. It has been a long wait for their supporters, 41 years to be precise and they now have some of their fans believing that this could be the year for them. But standing in their way will be a very strong Bulldogs outfit. They have class all around the field and whilst they do not possess a very strong halves pairing, they play a brand of football that doesn't rely on them to much but rather uses the forwards as their main ball players. This way they are getting the ball to the outside backs with more room to move. The likes of Josh Morris and Ben Barba are now more potent as they can move into the back line in more than one spot on the field. This is where the Rabbitohs defence has to be on guard. They almost have to be as good as their opposition, the Bulldogs. They are very strong in defence and have displayed one of the best defensive records this season. This is another reason why they have recorded the season they have. In the game against the Sea Eagles, they held their line very well and were as bruising as every at the line. By continually "bashing" the Sea Eagles runners, they were able to dominate the middle of the field. This also went a long way to putting the Sea Eagles players off their game. This will not happen as easily this time around and the Rabbitohs will be looking for a very physical battle up front. Playing the Storm in Week 1 of the Finals has perhaps been a positive as they were handed a thumping. Their forwards were able to walk away from that game with their pride a little battered and a reason to refocus them heading into the game against the Raiders. While they were at their dominating best, they were also only playing a side that many would consider very fortunate to be there. You will also hear the line this week about the Rabbitohs "not being able to beat a Top 4 side" (they did beat the Bulldogs earlier this season) and whilst this may be true in some part, it means very little now. All that matters is the 80 minutes of football they now have in front of them. That is all either side can focus on and they need to worry about winning that before they even think about training for the Grand Final a week later. This game is going to be a real delight to watch and with only 2 weeks left in the season, time is running out to win more money this season. So lets aim to finish on a high and take a closer look at the game.


Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Enjoying a week out of the spotlight would have suited the Bulldogs very nicely after a very physical game against the Sea Eagles. That game defined semi final football and the Bulldogs can only be better for the rest. Heading into this game, vision has surfaced of the Bulldogs working on their wrestling tactics which would be aimed at slowing down the ruck and not allowing the Rabbitohs to get rolling over the advantage line. It is no surprise that the Bulldogs have done this and they will not be the only side doing it in the lead up to their games, it is just another way of selling the game by the media. At the end of the day, the Bulldogs have to resort to playing the football that has gotten them so far this season. As mentioned above, they have used a different style of play that has their halves taking a lesser role in the attacking movement. A lot of responsibility does fall on the shoulders of Michael Ennis but he will relish the opportunity. He did leave the field with a rib injury during the game against Manly but was able to recover and retake the field at the beginning of the second half. Canterbury have therefore named an unchanged lineup heading into this clash and they will definitely be pleased to again have the same side taking the field. It has been a major factor in them playing consistent football. Dene Halatau is named as the 18th man but he will probably be the man who is left out prior to kickoff. Expect the Bulldogs to be in the right frame of mind with Des Hasler being experienced and proven at this point of the season. 


South Sydney Rabbitohs

After an embarrasing and ill-disciplined effort against the Storm, the Rabbitohs got their season back on track against the Raiders. Some of their tries were impressive and it can only act as a positive as they will no be full of confidence. Obviously though they will face a far superior opposition compared to the Raiders and this is semi final football. They learnt the hard way in their loss to the Storm that you need to be on your game for the entire duration of the contest. They gave away penalties at crucial times in the game and at crucial points on the field which only acted to get the Storm into very good field position. They also gave away two soft tries from scrums. They will be on guard against the Bulldogs and need to stick to their game plan if they are to get through with a win. They have strengths all over the field and should look to use all of them but they need to have a structure in place. Their forwards possess the majority of their potency and they are lead very well by Issac Luke. He was very good getting out of the ruck and getting the forwards over behind the Raiders defensive line. This only creates more space for their outside who will relish the extra room to move. Greg Inglis is one player who can pop up when it matters most and surprise the Bulldogs. He is at his damaging best this season and the battle between himself and Barba will be a thrilling contest. They could even be the two players who could determine this outcome. In terms of team news, Matt King is out of the game and didn't even play against the Raiders. His place in that game was taken by Chris McQueen and he is named to start in the centres. He certainly offers a lot to the Rabbitohs in defence and can get up very high and underneath a bomb to score or set up a try. Issac Luke has also officially been named to start in the number 9 jersey and Nathan Peats has been relegated to the bench. Jason Clark has been named to make a start from the bench after being a late withdrawal from the game with an ankle injury. The extended bench features six players and also include Justin Hunt who was named last week but didn't play. It will also be interesting to see the final makeup of Michael Maguire's side as last week he threw up a few changes prior to kick off that seemed to give them more power to start the game.


Recent History

Overall = Bulldogs 76 - Draw 4 - Rabbitohs 64
Last 5 games = Bulldogs 4 - Rabbitohs 1
At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 11 - Rabbitohs 3


Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.47 Rabbitohs $2.75
Centrebet = Bulldogs $1.48 Rabbitohs $2.72
Sportsbet = Bulldogs $1.50 Rabbitohs $2.65
Betfair = Bulldogs $1.52 Rabbitohs $2.90


Verdict

This is one game that I am still undecided on. You can make a case for both sides winning this game and as a punter, it is never a position you want to be in. Lucky though, there are several options that can almost be like placing an each-way bet. But for the sake of making a decision, I am going to make a case for both sides and let you guys choose a clear winner if you want. If not, check the suggested bets for other options.

Why the Bulldogs can win = They have one of the best defences in the competition and are a tough side. They have proven themselves this year against the top sides and play a style of play that can throw off other teams. Then you have Ben Barba and Josh Morris who can create something from nothing.
Why the Rabbitohs can win = Big forwards and Greg Inglis! They will be rolling over the advantage line and Issac Luke will be dynamic out of dummy half. Inglis also has the ability to impact on the game more than most players running around at the moment. Plus, they'll be riding a wave of emotion after not appearing in a Grand Final since 1971!

Suggested Bet
Tri Bet either team under 6.5 points @ $2.75

Safety Net Bet = Dozen start Bulldogs +12 @ $1.09 or Rabbitohs +12  @ $1.37 - This way you can take the team that you want and banking on a very close contest, you should collect a win here.

Superstar Try fest! = Try Scorer Ben Barba (First & Last @ $6)  and/or Greg Inglis (First $ Last @ $8) - Both are in great form and either player is going to be a great chance of scoring first. They both have the potential to also get over the line last and score a match winner.

Good luck!
Scooby

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