Finals football is definitely heating up this week as two teams were eliminate from the competition after suffering losses away from their home ground. There was a real highlight on how important home ground advantage can be when the pressure is on as all 4 teams that were playing at home, won. Now though, home field advantage is taken away and the "city" takes priority for the two clashes that lie ahead. Where ever this game is played though, it is sure to be a cracker. The Sea Eagles were out muscled by a Bulldogs side that showed plenty of belief within themselves and they took the fight to them early. It was a bruising encounter that left a few players worse for wear the next day. The Sea Eagles will look to regroup and aim to get things back on track here. It is amazing how quickly their fortunes have changed as well. A few weeks ago, they were the side to beat with a quality roster and a halves pairing dominating games. Now they are exposed to a few injuries and they are under the pump. As the Sea Eagles appear to be struggling, the Cowboys seem to be growing with each performance. They knocked out the Broncos on Saturday night in dominating fashion and they were able to get a few late points. This all came after a Broncos comeback was looming large. But the class of the Cowboys prevailed and they moved onto Week 2. There were a lot of positives to come out of that performance and of course, Thurston and Bowen were in fantastic form. Aside from this, their forwards again stepped up to the mark and made a statement to the other sides within the competition that they are to be recognised. They are now a side which people are thinking can take out the competition. Either way, this is going to be a thrilling contest and one side will be dropping out of contention and another will be pushing onto Week 3 to face the Storm. Tension will be high and excitement is not hidden. Get on board the NRL "Show Train" where dreams are made and hopes are dashed. Punters should also jump on board as plenty of money is there to be won.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
The Sea Eagles are not without their troubles heading into this clash. It was mentioned in last weeks preview that the Sea Eagles definitely will struggle to cover a few players in key positions should they succumb to injury or suspension. This week, they have to deal with both. Centre Steve Matai has been ruled out of this game through suspension after a high shot on Bulldogs winger Sam Perrett and perhaps he can consider himself lucky that the suspension handed down was not more serve. His spot in the centres is taken by Dean Whare who shifts from the wing and Michael Oldfield is the new face in the team. There is also a lot of speculation surrounding the fitness of Jamie Lyon. He only lasted 23 minutes in the loss to the Bulldogs and appears to be racing the clock to get his calf injury right for this game. He has been named and will be given right up until kick off to prove his fitness, but it would be extremely surprising to see him take the field. There is no clear indication as to who will be the player to take his position either. They have named an extended bench of 5, so perhaps Jamie Buhrer will come off the bench and into the centres and no player will be left out. It all remains unseen, but as soon as news comes to hand, it will be posted on my twitter feed. The Sea Eagles also have to worry about getting some pride back into their forwards. Often feared and proven as a factor behind their success, they were well and truly beaten by the Bulldogs pack. It was an "old fashion battle" between the two sides and the Sea Eagles will not want the same thing to happen hear. If it does, their superstar halves will struggle to impact the game playing behind a beaten pack. Look for improved performances from Watmough, Williams and Stewart, one of the best back row combinations in the competition. The intensity set by them early will just have to be maintained right up until the end.
North Queensland Cowboys
While the Cowboys did only beat a Broncos team that was on a slide, they still did it through some fantastic football. This included the first hat-trick in his short career to halfback Michael Morgan. They were firing on all cylinders and as mentioned above, their forwards were tough for the Broncos players to handle. This meant that they were continually rolling over the advantage line and had the Broncos on the back foot. Room was created for Thurston and Bowen and the outside backs were delivered quality ball with plenty of room to move. It all make for some great football but they were also solid in defence. More often than not, it will be defence that wins sides very close games at this point of the season. The Cowboys are still improving theirs each week and hopefully for them, it continues in this game. They need to control the ruck and dominate the Sea Eagles in the middle of the field. Again, this will fall on the shoulders of the forwards. As for their side this week, hooker Aaron Payne has been named but appears to be in a lot of doubt as he only played 10 minutes in the game against the Broncos. That meant exciting young gun James Segeyaro came onto the field and played 70 minutes. This was a great replacement for Payne and he played out of his skin. Like Lyon, Payne will be given right up until kick off to prove his fitness but if he is to withdraw, the Cowboys have named an extended bench of 6 to cover. This could mean that Segeyaro is promoted to the starting side and Anthony Mitchell becomes the utility player on the bench. That issue will have a small impact on the sides performance and they are definitely boosted by an unchanged lineup apart.
Recent History
Overall = Sea Eagles 12 - Cowboys 7
Last 5 games = Sea Eagles 4 - Cowboys 1
At Allianz Stadium = Sea Eagles 2 - Cowboys 0
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.95 Cowboys $1.88
Centrebet = Sea Eagles $2.00 Cowboys $1.85
Sportsbet = Sea Eagles $1.90 Cowboys $1.94
Betfair = Sea Eagles $2.02 Cowboys $1.96
Verdict
You can see from above, things are very tough to pick. These two sides both have their positives and people are struggling to tip a clear winner. No doubt if Manly were at full strength, they would be clear favorites for this match. But they're not and momentum is beginning to grow for the Cowboys. In terms of picking a winner, it is hard to go past the Cowboys. Do so cautiously though as one step out of their recent, consistent play and things could become ugly. Banking on that not happening and the Cowboys playing good football, they will get a very tough win over the Sea Eagles. Last week, the Sea Eagles again struggled to score points in the second half. This is something which has been overlooked for some time now and it is beginning to catch up on them. With their centres below strength, the Cowboys are stronger around the park. They also have a better bench than the Sea Eagles to call upon. I am not writing them off completely because this game could go down to the final play, I am just picking the Cowboys to get the win and progress towards facing Melbourne.
Suggested Bet
Cowboys @ $1.96
Small margin of victory = Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.90 OR (If you're feeling game) Cowboys 1-6 @ $5.50 - I've listed two options here and the reason is simple...I believe that the Cowboys will win the game but it will be a close game. If you want some value then the second option is for you but also consider a "safer" bet and allow for a maximum of 12 points.
Centretwon = First try scorer Brent Tate ($13) and/or Kane Linnett ($11) - The Sea Eagles are playing "weak" out wide with their first choice centres missing. Their replacements will have their work cut out for them here trying to hold these two players in pressure situations.
Good luck!
Scooby
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