The NRL stage is set for two cracking games of football this weekend as 4 teams try to qualify for the two spots in the Grand Finals on September 30th. The dream that every team started out striving for at the beginning of November 2011 is now only 160 minutes away from completion. Unfortunately, the lead up to both games this week has been somewhat overshadowed by the performance of the referees and video referees. Hopefully people can more past it but it certainly is an ugly cloud hanging over the head of the NRL Finals. For what it is worth, the two decisions in the Manly-Cowboys game didn't "rob" the Cowboys, it simple changed the momentum of the game and gave Manly a better chance of winning the match. Even Cowboys players admitted that Manly was the better side and that will be a big boost to their confidence heading into this game. The Sea Eagles and Storm have a great history of fierce battles and this game will be no different. No one will ever forget the "Battle of Brookvale" which resulted in a brawl between Glenn Stewart and Adam Blair. Things have come a long way since that incident but many people have never forgotten it and will almost hope that tempers flair up again this week to add extra feeling to the battle. Not that it will be needed. The Storm have enjoyed a week off and it has allowed them to regroup as a team and their players would have relished the opportunity to rest their weary bodies. They would have also been happy for the Sea Eagles and Cowboys to bash one another and face a team that would only have 7 days to recover. But Manly are a side that has been here before and definitely knows how to win at this stage of the season. They were surprised by the Bulldogs in Week 1 but were able to grind out a very tough win over the Cowboys with some very impressive defence. They were also complemented out wide by their back three who were able to score all of their tries for them. This is something that the Storm will have to look to dominate. If you were to pick apart their performance and allow and area for Melbourne to target, it would be the ease at which Manly gave up metres to the big Cowboys forwards. James Tamou (226m) and Matt Scott (184m) were very dominating in the middle of the field and the Sea Eagles forwards definitely struggled. You can certainly not afford to have a weakness anywhere on the field at this point of the season and both teams will be working at hard at training this week to fix any problems that there may be. Both sides have been here before and know what is required of them. So sit back, place a few bets (hopefully winners!) and enjoy the suspense and excitement that the NRL has to offer.
Melbourne Storm
The Storm have had a week off to freshen up for this game and will be definitely better for it. Whilst there is an argument for either having or not having the week off, you can say that without a doubt, the last thing you would have wanted was a game that the Sea Eagles had against the Cowboys. The Storm would've been sitting at home, very comfortable and watching with a ripe smile on their face. Heading into this game though they need to go back to the Storm side that we have been accustomed to. This means that they are very strong in defence and their attack is lead around well by the Big 3. In terms of the team for this week, Anthony Quinn has been ruled out with injury and his spot is taken on the wing by speedster Justin O'Neill as Will Chambers moves into the centres. The forward pack see's Jason Ryles named on the bench and Bryan Norrie is named to start in his place. Of course Ryles was a non starter in the game against the Rabbitohs and Norrie was the player who started in his place so this isn't much of a change at all. Todd Lowrie is named to make a return from injury and Rory Kostjasyn is relegated to an extended bench alongside Lowrie, but only one of those players will play in this game. The Storm's extended bench of 7 also includes Mahe Fonua who is there to cover one of the Storm's outside backs. There has been a few question's asked of the Storms forwards and this game should be no different. They are not as mobile as they once were and unless Smith is leading from the front, they struggle to make any real ground. Of course once you think that you are playing the Storm into the corners, they rely on other area's of their game and this includes the fantastic play of Slater and Cronk. Cronk's kicking game is going from strength to strength, and whilst not at his best, Slater is always dangerous in attack and defence. But all this will be jepordised if the Storms forwards cannot get a good platform set in attack and are strong in the middle of the field in defence.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Despite a tough game against the Cowboys, the Sea Eagles pulled through very well. There was a lot of speculation about the fitness of Jamie Lyon but he pulled through the game with relative ease and was at his best throughout. They are boosted this week by the return of Steve Matai from suspension and Dean Whare is shifted back out to the wing. Michael Oldfield departs the side altogether but it was after scoring two tries in the win over the Cowboys. Apart from that, the Sea Eagles side is unchanged. This also includes the extended bench named with George Rose again the likely man to miss the final side. Since the finals began, there has been a few suggestions around that this Manly side niggle their way through matches. This can be put down to the toughness and pride they have within their side. Not also that Manly have never lost a Grand Final Qualifier since 1975! But it is not as though this side will show up to the ground and the win is theirs. There will be a great battle throughout this game as each side attempts to assert their dominance on the other. It will be crucial to the outcome of the match and the key for the Sea Eagles is to limit the impact that Smith has on the game. Once they do this, they must also pressure Cronk. Perhaps being a good niggling side will serve them well at this point of the game.
Recent History
Overall = Storm 12 - Sea Eagles 10
Last 5 games = Storm 2 - Sea Eagles 3
At AAMI Park = Storm 1 - Sea Eagles 0
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.60 Sea Eagles $2.40
Centrebet = Storm $1.65 Sea Eagles $2.30
Sportsbet = Storm $1.60 Sea Eagles $2.40
Betfair = Storm $1.66 Sea Eagles $2.48
Verdict
This is a very tough game to pick and you can make a case for either side winning this match. Including this game, the Sea Eagles would have had three very tough games even before they have made the Grand Final. Their players will be struggling but you can never count them out based on some of the performances that they are capable of. The Storm will be wary of this and they certainly have players within their side that can single handedly shape the outcome of this contest. You need to think you selection through very carefully before investing your hard earned money on this match. I will be backing the Storm to get over the line here based on the fact that they've had a week off whilst Manly had a very tough contest and will have only 7 days to recover. Plus they have to travel down to Melbourne where the Storm are always difficult to beat. In tipping the Storm though, the Manly players will not fear the Storm based on their class, players, home ground advantage, etc. They have been here before and they know how to beat the Storm. This game will be a very exciting contest for fans to watch and expect a very close game which ever way the result goes.
Suggested Bet
Storm @ $1.66 (with Betfair)
Tri your bets = Either team Under 6.5 points @ $2.65 - It is stated above that which ever way this game goes, it should be a very close contest. This value offers plenty for punters without declaring a clear winner.
Precise decision = Storm 1-6 @ $5.50 - If you are going to lean the way of the Storm and want some value, you would need to consider this bet very carefully. The Storm have the players to rise to the occasion in pressure situations and a one point victory would suit this bet very well.
Good luck!
Scooby
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