Amongst the hype of the Rabbitohs finishing within the Top 4 and making their first finals series since 2007, many people (including myself) overlooked the enormity of their task heading into Week 1 of the Finals. They had to travel down to Melbourne and do something that they had never achieved in previous years, win at AAMI Stadium. It was a task that seemed reachable...until the 20th minute at least. They have a young side and it was evident that majority of their players were playing on emotion rather than the game plan and structure that had gotten them this far already. In the end, they were comprehensively beaten and walked away from that game with their tails between their legs as the Storm coasted into Week 3 of the Finals. Looking back at that game, they only have themselves to blame. They gave away silly penalties which allowed the Storm to get out of trouble with ease and then they were unable to mount any serious pressure when they were down the attacking end of the field due to decisions made in attack. Although this form can be a little misleading. The Storm scored two tries off set plays at scrums which lead to poor defensive reads and perhaps on another day, they would be able to defend such tries. Nevertheless, their attack was still missing and it is alarming considering the ease at which they mounted points during some games this season. It does say a lot about the quality of side that the Storm is and how they can force you into making mistakes. The Rabbitohs will be looking to resurrect their form in this game as they face a Raiders side that is riding high on confidence after an impressive finish to the season and a home semi final win over the Sharks. The emphatic fashion of the victory was impressive as they were able to pile on a lot of points against a Sharks side that is generally very strong in defence. The thing is though, they were good in defence and were hitting the Raiders hard in defence early. They also managed to get the Sharks off their game plan through a few "late" hits to some key players. The Sharks kept coming but towards the 60th minute, the Raiders kicked into another gear and left the Sharks pondering a season that "could have been". All roads now lead to this clash and rugby league fans around the league will definitely be tuning into this game because of the possibilites and unknowns of just what this game is capable of. It is sure to make some great football. Both sides are not without their changes though this week and whilst the Rabbitohs will be hoping to change their regular play, the Raiders will be hoping to change the opinion of people that has them considered as a genuine title threat.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
As stated above, the Rabbitohs definitely struggled with their performance last week. Perhaps out of their depth down in Melbourne, it could have clicked them into gear and had their minds refocused on the job. The job is simple to understand, play mistake free football, get a win and move onto Week 3 to face the Bulldogs. But things will be changed around a bit this week as an injury to Matt King has forced a reshuffle of the back line. Andrew Everingham moves into the centres and his vacant wing spot is taken by Justin Hunt. Hunt was good in the limited exposure that he had throughout the year but semi final football will certainly have him nervous. Shaun Corrigan has been called into the side on the extended bench so perhaps coach Michael Maguire is still unsure of the final make up of his side. The pack remains the same for the Rabbitohs and that is where they were comprehensively beaten and it is surprising considering the names within this side. The Storm showed that a pack that can dominate the ruck will always win the game. Smith lead from the front and Souths found themselves giving away silly penalties in crucial positions (i.e. 3rd-5th tackle and in the Storms half). But they must put all of this behind them now and move forward into this game. The Raiders posses a good pack also and they will not want to give them any room to move. Interestingly, Nathan Peats has been named at hooker and Issac Luke is on the bench. Peats started the game last week but Luke came onto the field to boost the speed of the Rabbitohs play. Maybe Maguire will also throw a "curve ball" in this crucial position. No doubt about it, Peats is developing into a strong player but they are a better side with Luke on the field. Their halves were limited against the Storm and that was due to poor forward play. Look for the halves to have more room to move if the big Souths forwards can dominate this game early.
Canberra Raiders
The Raiders continue to develop their play each week that has people taking notice of their potential and ability to beat sides who have played well all season. Still seeing the Raiders playing at this point in the season though, you cannot help but think they are pretenders as some of their play this season was borderline woeful. But they are here now and they will take each game on its merits. Unfortunately they suffered a blow in their win over the Sharks with solid centre and goal kicker, Jarrod Crocker, ruled out for the remainder of the season with a leg injury. It does leave a whole out wide in defence and attack but David Furner has patched things up with back rower-come-centre Joel Thompson. Thompson is no stranger to playing out wide and will definitely be a good aquisition in defence for them. Joe Picker comes from the bench to fill the vacant spot in the back row. The new face on the bench is Jack Wrighton and he is there along with the 3 extra players who were dropped off prior to kick off last week. The Raiders must nullify the Rabbitohs pack early and they certainly have the quality up fron to do so. Not only that, they can create plenty of space for their outside backs. The Raides backs have proved that they can finish tries when needed and the Rabbitohs will want to make sure that this doesn't happen too often. The more confidence they have, the more dangerous they become.
Recent History
Overall = Rabbitohs 18 - Raiders 27
Last 5 games = Rabbitohs 3 - Raiders 2
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 2 - Raiders 3
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.43 Raiders $2.90
Centrebet = Rabbitohs $1.42 Raiders $2.95
Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.42 Raiders $2.95
Betfair = Rabbitohs $1.46 Raiders $3.10
Verdict
The Rabbitohs were overawed last week and it showed through their performance. The best thing heading into this game is that those nerves should now have settled and they should focus on sticking to their game plan. The Raiders will have something to say about the result though and will be using their confidence to surprise the Rabbitohs and have them moving around the field. All things considered, it is hard to go past the Rabbitohs when you compare the two sides. Yes the Raiders have a mountain of momentum in their favor but the Rabbitohs have a better pack of forwards that is complimented well by a halves pairing that can fire on their day. Then they have the superstar in Inglis. He was quiet against the Storm and will be looking to single handedly get the Rabbitohs into Week 3 with a big performance. I do expect this game to be a high scoring contest as both sides can score points but it should be the Rabbitohs who prevail at the end of the day.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs -6.5 @ $1.80
Raiding the fortress = Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.75 - If the Rabbitohs get on a role, they could very well get away from the Raiders and look to build momentum into Week 3. This could be crucial as the Raiders have been playing sudden death football for so long now that they could tire late in this game.
Queenslandeeer = First Try Scorer Greg Inglis ($8) and/or Dave Taylor ($17) - Both players have been playing well this season but being representive players, they will have to lift. A good way to lift would be to lead the way for the Rabbitohs and get over the line first. They're always dangerous when they are running close to the line.
Good luck!
Scooby
No comments:
Post a Comment