Saturday remains pretty "Super" this weekend as NRL fans are treated to two semi final encounters that are sure to be amazing contests. The first game kicks off at 5:45pm down in Melbourne and see's the tried and tested Storm host the superstar Rabbitohs who are looking for their first title since 1971. It has been a long wait for the Rabbitohs as their last finals appearance since 1989 was only in 2007 when they were bundled out in the first week after a loss to Manly at Brookvale. They have had a very good season by their usual standards and they have finished in 3rd place. They have earned their spot on the back of some very dominating forward play and a great rookie season from the "2012 Rookie of the Year" Adam Reynolds. Fans of the Rabbitohs would be quick to tell you though that they are actually hoping that this season lasts right up until 30th September, with a win of course. If they are to last right up until then, they must look to get past the Storm. They will get a "second chance" if they lose here but they would also be rewarded with a week off if they were to win. The Storm will be pushing hard for that week off as it would allow their players another week of rest to recover from some injuries that seem to be limiting their play at the moment. None more so that Billy Slater who appears to still suffering from the effects of an injury suffered in SOO 2. But as Slater has been slowed, Cronk has certainly lifted to another level, as has Cameron Smith. That is what you come to expect from superstar players though, be cautious though as they can only get them so far. They already look worn out and in need of support, support that isn't really coming from their pack. There is definitely a big question mark hanging over their heads in this department as they are not as dominating as they once were. The Sharks proved a few weeks ago that if you can beat them here, you are going to be in a very strong position to win the game. Expect coach Craig Bellamy to be working very hard on patching up this area of their play. You are also going to see a match up between Bellamy and his former assistant come Rabbitohs coach, Michael Maguire. This game promises to be a very exciting and tough contest between two sides that are promising to give this competition a good shake in weeks to come.
Melbourne Storm
The Storm thrive on consistency and they have again gone with almost an unchanged lineup after a good win over the Tigers, or so it appears. While they named a similar team team to the one in Round 26, the team that took the field against the Tigers was remarkably different to the one that is named this week. Dane Nielsen was in to replace Justin O'Neill, Jason Ryles was out and he was replaced on field by Brian Norrie and in the side by Richie Fa'aoso. Anthony Quinn was also a late withdrawal and was replaced by Mahe Fonua. In this game, Todd Lowrie is out of this game and his place at lock is taken by Ryan Hinchcliffe who moves off the bench and his bench spot is taken by Rory Kostasyn. With that in mind, the Storm will look to resume normal proceedings for this game. As mentioned above though, there is a few issues with their forwards. Smith has the forwards working well out of dummy half and is trying to get them over the advantage line. This is proving tougher here than in seasons gone by. While this is a problem, they probably more vulnerable in their defence. When they come up against a very strong pack, they can often struggle to hold them away from gaining easy metres up the middle of the field. There can also be times in the game when they have Smith, Kostjasyn and Hinchcliffe in the middle of the field. Whilst they are good defenders, they are not very imposing and do not force the opposition back with their defence, they simply become a more mobile pack. There is two players have are added to the extended bench for the Storm this week in the form of Richie Fa'aoso and Siosaia Vave. It would be likely that these two players will be the two that will drop out of the side before kick off.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Welcome back to Finals football for the Rabbitohs since 2007. It has been a long and tough road back for this side as each year they start with a lot of hope and promise, but never deliver. The club needed a transformation and they received it in the form of Michael Maguire taken over as coach. Much like Hasler, he has his players buying into his theory and it is showing with more controlled play in games. They are the only side in the NRL this season that has maintained the exact same halves pairing for every game of the 2012 season. It was always going to be important to their success that this was maintained as young halfback Adam Reynolds was always going to find the NRL tough. He has risen to the task and has been recognised with a seasoned award. He would give it all up to for a premiership no doubt and that will be his and his teams motivation in coming weeks. Reynolds has also been well support by Sutton who has transformed himself around as a 5/8. In saying that though, he is capable of going missing in game when the heat is on and Melbourne will be targeting him. It is crucial to the Rabbitohs success that he gets involved when he is needed. In terms of the side for this game, there is no change to the side that grounded out a 12-point victory over the Knights in Newcastle. They were certainly firing in that game and they were lead in the middle of the park by their forwards. Issac Luke was also promoted back into the side but played from the bench. He is again named on the bench here and there is no indication to the involvement that he will have in this game. The Rabbitohs have named an extended bench of 7 so there are 3 players that have to drop off before kick off. This looks likely that it will be Ben Lowe, Dave Tyrrell and Justin Hunt. The Rabbitohs must play to their strength which is their forwards and look to dominate a Storm pack that has a few questions to be asked of them. They must ensure that they are also creating enough room for the outside backs to excel. Not only that, but they will also want to give Inglis enough room to move and challenge the Storm defenders at every possible point. They will rely heavily on him to get them over the line but cannot leave him everything to do.
Recent History
Overall = Storm 16 - Rabbitohs 3
Last 5 games = Storm 4 - Rabbitohs 1
At AAMI Stadium = Storm 2 - Rabbitohs 0
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.65 Rabbitohs $2.25
Centrebet = Storm $1.65 Rabbitohs $2.30
Sportsbet = Storm $1.67 Rabbitohs $2.25
Betfair = Storm $1.70 Rabbitohs $2.38
Sportingbet = Storm $1.65 Rabbitohs $2.30
Verdict
This is semi final football and there is no surprise that this game will be another close one. There is one thing that is working against the Rabbitohs and that is their very poor record against the Storm. This include in Melbourne, where they are yet to win a match. But there is a first for everything and they certainly have the stock within their side this year to give the Storm a run for their money. The Sharks have shown in the last few weeks how to beat the Storm and the Rabbitohs will definitely be ready for a fierce battle in the middle of the field. They will also hope that the knowledge of the individual players will give Maguire a great insight ahead of this clash. Then again, that will count for little unless the Rabbitohs to get the job done on the day.
Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs @ $2.38 (with Betfair)
A close call = Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $3.40 - If the Rabbitohs were to win this game, it would be extremely surprising to see them win this match by 13+ points. For that reason, the 1-12 margin does seem very inviting and a great source of value.
Down to the wire = Rabbitohs 1-6 @ $6 - This game could go down the bounce of the ball in the dying minutes and this bet would then come into play. Not as accurate as the bet mentioned above but if you are thinking of a close Rabbitohs victory, then this option should appeal to you.
Good luck!
Scooby
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