Saturday 6 October 2012

NFL Week 5 Betting Preview

The NFL road show rolls into Week 5 and there is plenty of things that are beginning to take shape. For starters, no one would have predicted that the New Orleans Saints would be 0-4 at this stage, regardless of the problems that they had in the offseason. There were three undefeated team but that all changed after Thursday nights game and now there are two undefeated sides  going and they are 1st and 2nd in the Power Rankings. I am talking about the Houston Texans and the Atlanta Falcons, two sides that no one thought be where they are. Seems as though this season is one full of surprises. Teams will now have the chance to regroup following the bye and get their season back on track. Others are momentarily interrupted, but also use it as a chance to rest tired and injured players. This is the stage of the season where teams begin to make a charge and make their presence felt amongst the rest of the league.  If they don't, they risk falling behind in their conference and find themselves on the end of a losing record. It will only be a few more weeks until the US sport shows start throwing up the "Playoff Picture" and teams need to ensure that they are in the spot to make a charge.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will look to build on a 3-game winning streak with a win here over the Dolphins. This all comes after they were handed a very embarrassing defeat to the Ravens in Week 1 and it appears that this has been the catalyst for their recent form. They are back home in this game and have averaged 33-points a game. Although, their defence hasn't been anything to write home about, it is improving and they were able to hold the Jaguars to one of their worst offensive performances last week. The Dolphins will not be an easy team to mov past and the Bengals will find it difficult to hold down the Miami offence with a few injuries to players within their side. The Dolphins have played well and can consider themselves unlucky after narrow losses to the Jets and the undefeated Cardinals. Miami will have their work cut out for them on defence as they are ranked 30th overall when trying to stop the pass and they face a QB ranked 5th in the league, Andy Dalton. Combine him with the Bengals other second-year star, WR A.J. Green, they look like they have built an efficient side. The Bengals should get a narrow win in a high-scoring shootout.

TAB Sportsbet = Dolphins $2.50 Bengals $1.50
Centrebet = Dolphins $2.40 Bengals $1.59
Sportsbet = Dolphins $2.45 Bengals $1.58
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Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts
With all the news that has gone on off the field for the Colts in recent weeks, this game hardly seems important. In case you missed it, their coach was diagnosed with cancer and could spend the remainder of the year away from their franchise. They will be definitely playing this game and the reset of their season for him. Their play on the field has been interesting to watch, as they are a team moving away from one style of play to another. The Colts have plenty of improvement within them still, but they have a fair way to go before they are to really make anything of their season. They can be dangerous and the Packers would not want to give them any room to move. For the Packers, their season is 2-2 and they are tracking along nicely after a very sluggish start to their season. Having beaten the Saints last week in a very close encounter, the Aaron Rogers lead team is building nicely. The Colts were unlucky themselves last start against Jacksonville and the team which isn't going to let mistakes ruin their game, will win this match. It should be a close encounter but expect the Packers to get a win.

TAB Sportsbet = Packers $1.33 Colts $3.15
Centrebet = Packers $1.36 Colts $3.20
Sportsbet = Packers $1.36 Colts $3.30
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Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens have enjoyed a week off to regroup and travel to one of the loudest venues, Arrowhead Stadium. It will be interesting to see how their no-huddle offense performs in this situation. They will try to pressure Chiefs QB Matt Cassel, a player who is a major reason why the Chiefs do not have a better record than 1-3. The interceptions have been a problem for the Chiefs and they will not want to give away possession easily as the Ravens could capitalise. The Ravens have a stronger defence that is capable of stopping the Chiefs running game. In their past two games, the Ravens have only allowed 2.4 yards per carry. They also have a far superior offence and with Flacco directing traffic, they should be too strong for the Chiefs. Be cautious though, the Chiefs will be hard to knock off at their home ground and if they don't turn over the ball, they could give the Ravens a scare.

TAB Sportsbet = Ravens $1.35 Chiefs $3.05
Centrebet = Ravens $1.38 Chiefs $3.10
Sportsbet = Ravens $1.39 Chiefs $3.12
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Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite being 3-1, there are plenty of people that are lining up to knock the Eagles form this season. There is no doubt that they have won ugly, but the Steelers would take their record even if is meant that they were ugly. The Steelers are coming off a bye week and will be thankful that a few of their players are returning to their lineup, two of them being previous Defensive Players of the Year. Despite being 1-2, the Steelers are quiet calm about their chances this season and are confident that they can stop blowing 4th-quarter leads. You have seen it before, everything can unravel quickly for the Eagles if they are not focused on their job. Turnovers were a big problem for the Eagles in the first three weeks but they were able to turn that around and not commit any in the win over the Giants. Amazingly they are ranked 5th in the league for average yards (417.8) but are 30th for points scored (16.5). This will be a very close game but I like the Steelers to get a win at home over the Eagles.

TAB Sportsbet = Eagles $2.40 Steelers $1.53
Centrebet = Eagles $2.38 Steelers $1.60
Sportsbet = Eagles $2.44 Steelers $1.59
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Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins
After Friday, there are only two undefeated teams in the league after the Cardinals dropped one to the Rams. They already have built a sizable lead in the NFC South and they will look to get to 5-0 while the Redskins try to end a 7-game losing streak at home. Leading them around is the highest rated QB in the league, Matt Ryan. He has transformed the Falcons passing game and even drove them 77-yards down the field to get a last second field goal win over the Carolina Panthers. On the other side of things is RG3 and his Redskins. Being back at home will help their this franchise that is slowly, but surely, working to change the level of play. Their offence will definitely be on guard and look to cause the Falcons plenty of problems with their running game. But it is the Redskins defensive unit that will have to lift to another level and try and stop the Falcons who are producing an average of 31 points per game. Whilst there has been a lot written about the Falcons offence, it is their defence that needs some credit sent their way. They are tough and bring some heat when it is needed...this week its needed more than ever. I can smell a Redskins upset, but cannot buy into it unless the Redskins defence lifts their performances. Be careful when betting on this game.

TAB Sportsbet = Falcons $1.58 Redskins $2.30
Centrebet = Falcons $1.68 Redskins $2.22
Sportsbet = Falcons $1.65 Redskins $2.30
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Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were obviously very unlucky in their loss to the Falcons but QB Cam Newton has stepped up and excepted blame for what occurred. It was his fumble that cause the Panthers to miss a "game clinching" first down and they were forced to punt to the ball away. They will want to repay their home fans for that loss and are a side that is capable of scoring a lot of points. The one big problem for the Panthers though is that they struggle to hold opposing sides and average around 27 points allowed. Then again, the Seahawks won't exactly trouble the Panthers in this area. There are a few problems for them at the present time and majority revolves around the QB. They have the fewest yards in the league in their passing game and are ranked last in the league for red zone TD efficiency. unless they can rectify this problem, they are going to find it very tough against the Panthers. The Seahawks to possess a very good defensive unit but the Panther should bounce back from their disappointing loss last week.

TAB Sportsbet = Seahawks $2.20 Panthers $1.63
Centrebet = Seahawks $2.20 Panthers $1.70
Sportsbet = Seahawks $2.29 Panthers $1.69
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Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are currently at 1-3 but you cannot help but think that they are lucky to even have won one game. They will certainly be tested here as the Bears will not be an easy side to beat. The key for them will be trying to pressure Cutler and break down the Bears offence. It is said that the Jaguars are have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL but then again, the Bears can be inconsistent as well. Whilst they are streaky, the Bears defence are one of the best in the league and strangle their opposition down to the point where they make simple mistakes. This is highlighted by the fact that so far this year, they have a league-high 11 interceptions, third with 15 sacks and ranks fifth in the NFL in scoring defence at 17.0 points per game. It would be extremely hard to see the Jaguars winning this game, the Bears are going to get a victory here.

TAB Sportsbet = Bears $1.38 Jaguars $2.90
Centrebet = Bears $1.42 Jaguars $2.90
Sportsbet = Bears $1.41 Jaguars $3.03
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Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are surprisingly sitting a top of the NFC North, tied with the Bears, thanks to star RB Adrian Peterson. He is back to full fitness and is as damaging as ever. In Sundays win over the Lions, he carried the ball 21 times and gained 102 yards. This game is even more significant because if the Vikings get a win against a weakened Titans team, they will surpass their record from last season. Although, there is still a lot of work for the Vikings to do. They didn't score an offensive touchdown in their 20-13 win over the Lions, but they did return a Punt and a Kick off for a TD. Perhaps things may get rolling for them against a side that allows 37.1 points per game. The Titans have problems on both sides of the ball and QB Matt Hasselbeck has to step up from the bench as they have lost Jake Locker with a separated shoulder. The one shining light for the Titans would be the development of their RB, Chris Johnson. He put in a good running performance last week and it is hopefully a sign of things to come for this talented player. All the problems for the Titans will not go away easily. Three times this season they have scored 14 points or less and can ill afford to hand over possession. Vikings will look to build consistency within their offence and while a lot lies with Peterson, QB Christian Ponder is also a key player. So far this season, he has 4 TD's and 0 INT's. Another consistent performance from him at home should lead the Vikings to victory. 

TAB Sportsbet = Titans $2.90 Vikings $1.40
Centrebet = Titans $2.90 Vikings $1.42
Sportsbet = Titans $2.92 Vikings $1.43
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Other tips:
Giants - Browns will struggle when they are pressured by this defensive unit.
Jets - Going the upset, a week after they were shutout by the 49ers.
Saints - Finally get a win and go 1-4 but will do it tough against the Chargers.
Patriots - Last possible meeting of Brady & P.Manning? Good game to follow but Pats have class and Denver are still builting

Good luck!
Scooby

1 comment:

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