So here it is...ever since the final whistle went in Game 2, rugby league fans have been looking forward to this match. They have debated about every topic relating to the match and have suggested changes or game plans that each team should implement that will gain them success in the deciding game. NSW fans will be hoping that their team can end the dominance of QLD and avoid a 7th consecutive series victory, whilst north of the boarder, QLD fans are hoping that their winning streak continues. This match is on track to shatter any previous viewing record and is tipping to have the most money held on a match by several bookmakers. So this is where we find ourselves now. Looking at what betting options are available to us and perhaps where we can find something that can yield us a return. I will say, this game is going to be a great spectacle and have said in my other two origin previews, that you should perhaps not invest as much money and just enjoy the game. My thoughts are no different here. Enjoy the game, but a few small bets won't hurt to make the game a little more interesting (like that is needed!).
First Try Scorer = NSW - I've previously said Robbie Farrah ($28.75) and Todd Carney ($21.25) and will stick with these two as options for the Blues. Carney, by his own admission, didn't have the best game in Game 1. But it was good to see him bounce back in Game 2 and take the ball to the line more, which resulted in a run away try to Brett Stewart. With each game that goes by, Carney continues to grow in confidence. Farrah is always in and around the ruck and searching for the line. Obviously between this game and the last one, he has gone through a lot of heartache. But he is a professional and will look to capitalise on the sometimes "lazy" defence by the bigger QLD forwards around the play the ball. I will also make one more selection and that is Jarryd Hayne ($12.50). Josh Morris and Brett Morris were tipped to play on the same side together but Ricky Stuart has said that this won't happen. That means Hayne will be playing alongside Josh. Josh has been in some fantastic form this season and in Origin, he has been just as good. His defence against Greg Inglis was nothing short of amazing. He made tackles against him that had to be made and covered well for Uate outside him. Now that Inglis has moved to fullback , Dane Nielsen will face Morris. While Nielsen is a good defender, Morris has the ability to draw in two players (Boyd & Nielsen) and give the ball to Hayne in open space.
QLD - I have stuck solid with Tate ($13) through the first two games and he put in a fantastic performance in Origin 2. What I am finding difficult to have with Tate is he is playing outside Justin Hodges who very rarely passes the football to him. That must becoming frustrating because Hodges does sometimes attract two players in. So I am going to look elsewhere in this game. Now that Greg Inglis ($9) has moved to fullback to replace Billy Slater, the chance that he gets the ball more often increase dramatically. He was moved their for the Rabbitohs and has been nothing short of brilliant. He is a terrific player so take him, even if he is the shortest priced player. If you want some value for QLD, have a look at Sam Thaiday ($26). He missed Origin 2 through injury and will be out to assert his dominance on the game early. He plays on the right hand side for the Maroons and they look dangerous each time they went there in Game 2. Maybe he will be steaming onto the ball close to the line.
First Try Scorer/Margin Double = I've said it in every Origin preview that I've given this year. This game will be a close one, so there is no reason not to increase your money and chuck in a 1-12 on either side. If you pick one player from each team and invest $10 First Try/NSW 1-12 & then QLD 1-12, you're looking at a $40 outlay. If you think that one team is sure to win if they score first or like a particular option, then go with what your mind says.
QLD
Inglis/QLD 1-12 @ $19
Inglis/NSW 1-12 @ $34
Thaiday/QLD 1-12 @ $59
Thaiday/NSW 1-12 @ $98
NSW
Hayne/QLD 1-12 @ $33
Hayne/NSW 1-12 @ $23
Farrah/QLD 1-12 @ $75
Farrah/NSW 1-12 @ $52
Half/Fulltime Double = This option provides plenty of value for punters. It is going to be a very close game and rather than say that one team will lead all the way, or one will lead and then fightback, I believe the best option lies in the draw/result. Draw/QLD and Draw/NSW are both @ $15. Interestingly, if it is going to be close enough, Draw/Draw is at $34. Maybe if golden point is the only outcome, this may be the way to go. Remember you can still have a golden point win if a team leads at halftime. Also consider QLD/Draw and NSW/Draw both at $26. Yes, I am saying scores will be level at some point in the game (and not just 0-0!).
Winning Margin = Obviously it is going to be a close game and it would be a very big surprise for either side to get blown out of the water in this game. QLD 1-6 ($4.75) and NSW 1-6 ($5.25) are both very good options. Again, the Draw is valuable @ $19.
Man of the Match = After the farce that was the Origin 2 MOM, I would perhaps steer clear of this option. But that doesn't mean that I am not going to provide a few selections. Robbie Farrah ($8) was extremely hard done by in Game 2 and it should be noted that he won the NSW players player. As for other NSW players, consider Carney ($9) and a roughy, Luke Lewis ($34). For QLD, you need to go no further than Thaiday ($26), Thurston ($7) and Inglis ($6).
Tri-Bet = Either Team Under 6.5 Points @ $2.65 possess a bit of value for the average punter if you were aiming to create a multi which would include a few Wimbledon head-to-head matches.
Best Value Bookie = Don't just take on one website or organisation because they are the easiest to access. Look around and search hard to find the best value for money offer. Plenty of outlets are offerring some great specials on the match so look for them also. Be smart, after all, it is your money.
Winner = I have refrained from posting a winner in the previous two previews I have given, but this is the deciding game, Game 3, so why not. For the record, I will be backing NSW to get the win. I think that after 6 years, they have finally found what they were missing and needed to overcome the QLD team. Throw in a few injuries to Slater and Ashley Harrison, and you have a weaker QLD, as opposed to years gone by. Don't for a second think that I am calling QLD weak, they are far from that. I believe that NSW also have a faster and more mobile forward pack that is capable of working the bigger and less mobile QLD forwards over early in the game. Some have suggested that this is where QLD are vulnerable and I agree. They have the class, but I think that NSW has come up with a very good game plan to combat the QLDers.
Good luck!
Scooby
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