The Storm are sitting pretty at the top of the premiership table and will look to move past the Raiders with ease at home. The Raiders have been poor this season overall but have thrown together a good performance every now and then, most notably, their last victory in MNF over the Dragons. That win kept a good 12-year streak alive and they celebrated the victory after the siren as if they had won the grand final. The win was a great one because they were actually missing nine regular first graders through injury, suspension or SOO selection. It was also a good win for coach David Furner as it kept those rumours about his impending departure quiet again. That is what each win and loss does for the Raiders and they can ill afford to be dragged through the same questions each week. So, keep winning. The Storm on the other hand have deserved their billing as the team to beat. However, now becomes a time of the season where they are tested most. They are already without star fullback Billy Slater for a few more weeks and will also have their other stars Cameron Smith, Dane Nielsen and Cooper Cronk backing up from SOO. Those players will begin to play under more pressure as their bodies begin to carry more aches and bruises with each game. The Storm will want to get their stars through this game without any worry as they do have a fairly tough run home. If they drop this game, they will have the Bulldogs breathing down their neck. They are not home and hosed just yet and this is a game that they need to win to keep to the Dogs at bay. Not only that, they have been very dominant thus far, but this is the business end of the season and early season form now means little.
Melbourne Storm
The Storm relished the chance to have the bye last week whilst their SOO stars were away but it is going to be tough for them to back up after a very brutal clash. Interestingly each SOO player in this game is from QLD (and thats for both teams!). The team that was named see's Nielsen, Smith and Cronk named to play so there is no shock there. A change to the team that lost to the Bulldogs in their previous start see's Cameron Smith named at hooker (his usual position) and not 5/8. Filling the 5/8 is Maurice Blair. The Storm have also named an extended bench that features Siosaia Vave, Jamian Lowe and Sisa Waqa and perhaps they will be the players to miss out. They also purchased Richie Fa'oso from the Knights before the June 30 deadline and some suggest that he may be a late inclusion to add some muscle and aggression to the forwards. The Storm will not want to drop this match here against the Raiders knowing full well that this was a game last year where the Raiders caused an upset winning 20-12 (at AAMI park!). They will want to reduce the amount of involvement their stars have and will want to put the Raiders away early to perhaps take them off the field and begin much needed recovery time. In saying that, the two points will be a definite priority.
Canberra Raiders
The Raiders have a very short turn around from their MNF match and a tough trip down south. Their confidence will be sky high after grounding out a tough victory. This young team finally showed what they are capable of. They will also be boosted by the return of QLD prop Dave Shillington to the front row and also resume captaincy duties. As a result, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, who was also co-captain in Shillington's absence, drops back to the interchange bench, while Bronson Harrison is dropped altogether (due to injury) to accomodate Learoyd-Lahrs. Late inclusion for the Dragons match Sandor Earl is also named this week to start. The Raiders have also named an extended bench with one player to drop out before kick off. It is interesting to see Blake Ferguson named despite appearing to suffer a bad facial injury late in MNF. The Raiders have struggled with consistency this season and can implode at certain times, but they have to keep winning if they want coach Dave Furner to remain. They are still suffering from a horror injury toll so perhaps this game will have a better long term benefit in terms of "blooding" young players.
Recent History
Overall = Storm 23 - Raiders 7
Last 5 games = Storm 4 - Raiders 1
At AAMI Park = Storm 1 - Raiders 1
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.20 Raiders $4.75
Centrebet = Storm $1.25 Raiders $4.15
Sportsbet = Storm $1.20 Raiders $4.75
Verdict
The Raiders did win this corresponding fixture last year and will be able to adjust easily to the wet and cold conditions that are expected in Melbourne for this game. With all that considered, the Storm should still be too strong for the Raiders. It is reasonable to assume that the Raiders will still be full of confidence follow MNF and there were great in that game. They completed 35/40 sets and had an efficiency rating of 98%! But they also had a considerable 16-6 advantage at HT and should have put the Dragons away instead of letting them find a way back into the game. The Storm can ill-afford to drop this game either because following this match they have a very tough run into September. They are a very classy outfit and should get the job done in this one, but I definitely believe that the Raiders are overs with the bookies.
Suggested Bet
Storm @ $1.25 w/Centrebet
Margin = Storm 1-12 @ $3 - As stated above, the Storm will want to put this game away early and perhaps taking their star players off the field with time remaining will allow the Raiders to score a few late tries and they certainly can score a try from anywhere on the field.
Line call = Raiders +13.5 @ $1.85 - This is a massive start given to the Raiders and it has to be based on their poor performances this season and not their good ones. They deserve to be outsiders but this bet relates to the point which was raised above. The Storm may switch off, but still win the match.
Good luck!
Scooby
No comments:
Post a Comment