Friday 13 July 2012

NRL Round 19 St George Illawarra Dragons v Cronulla Sharks Preview

The Sunday afternoon "match of the day" is a great clash between two great rivals in the south of Sydney, the Dragons and the Sharks. It is a shame however that these two great rivals must travel down to Wollongong to play this game, but then again the Illawarra name is attached to the Dragons brand. Perhaps there was some thought put behind this move that would see less Cronulla fans travel to Wollongong as opposed to Kograh. But regardless of where the game is played, tensions are sure to be running high in this game. The Dragons find themselves in the unusual position of being outside the Top 8 as teams begin their run home. In previous years, they were cemented into the Top 4 sides at least and were begin to build momentum for a big shot at the title. But this year things haven't exactly gone to plan and several players have been under performing. The Sharks on the other hand have had a season to remember. While you can say that the position they're in at this stage of the season is unusual compared to recent seasons. But now they have to prove to the competition just what they are capable of. However, like most other teams this weekend, they must make the competition take some notice of them and what better way to do it then in this game. This is going to be a great clash and hopefully is played on a beautiful day that promotes expansive footy. Also, it is great that this game will be shown on free-to-air TV.

St George Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons needed their final bye last week to regroup after a very disappointing loss to the Raiders in Canberra that continued a 12 year hoodo. Their confidence is definitely down and while they have relatively the same squad that played under Wayne Bennett, they seem to be under performing now. Dragons fans will not tolerate this for too long and I have said for a number of weeks in my Power Rankings that coach Steve Price needs to start making the tough calls on players in his squad. The positive news for the Dragons is that they have a few players returning to their lineup from SOO duty. It was thought that with Brett Morris returning that he would slot back at fullback but Price has opted to leave Nightingale their and move Morris to the wing for Goodwin. Beau Scott and Ben Creagh are named in the second row and Jake Marketo is dropped back to the bench and Leeson Ah Mau is out altogether. The Dragons have named an extended bench of five and the likely player to drop off is actually Marketo. It is interesting to see that not many changes have been made to this team over a season where they have struggled to score points and really lay any solid foundations in defence.


Cronulla Sharks
The Sharks struggled against the Roosters in MNF but they were missing their captain Paul Gallen. News doesn't get any better for them as he is also out for this clash. After a bruising SOO series he will probably be given as much time as possible to completely recover and ensure that he is firing come the finals. Unfortunately they are also missing Jeremy Smith with a knee complaint. Wade Graham is officially named as captain this week and he has been a great player for them this season. With the pressure of captaincy on MNF, we saw him rise to another level. He will also start at lock for Gallen. Andrew Fifita is named to start in the second row as Graham moves to lock. The Sharks have also named an extended bench that features the 18th man Jon Green and 19th man Anthony Tupou, from last weeks clash. Colin Best is named to play in this game and should take the field. They are understrength in this game but have proven themselves this season in similar positions.


Recent History
Overall = Dragons 13 - Draw 1 - Sharks 15
Last 5 games = Dragons 3 - Sharks 2
At WIN Stadium = Dragons 3 - Sharks 0

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Dragons $1.60 Sharks $2.40
Centrebet = Dragons $1.62 Sharks $2.35
Sportsbet = Dragons $1.62 Sharks $2.35
Betfair = $1.62 $2.42

Verdict
The Sharks are under pressure in this game. They have a few players out with injury and are backing up from a tough MNF game against the Roosters. So what can they produce? The Dragons have a fantastic record down in Wollongong and will be want to ensure that continues. But I have mentioned several times this season that this is a different Sharks team. I think that we will see the best of them in this clash. If they want to stand up and be counted as premiership contenders, they will have to win this game. But then against the Dragons are playing for their season. Based on the form of the two teams this season and knowing what they're able to produce, the Sharks should get home in a very close game. 

Suggested Bet
Sharks +4.5 @ $1.85


Close call? = Sharks 1-12 $3.50 - I've stated that it will be a very close game so why not try and pick a margin in this game. It would be very surprising if the Sharks won 13+, so 1-12 seems to be the go. It is good value in a multi also.


Super line = Sharks +8.5 @ $1.52 - If you're still worried about the Sharks getting home in this game then consider giving them a bigger start. 


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

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