Friday, 6 July 2012

NRL Round 18 South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights Preview

The Rabbitohs fans are growing in confidence with each win that they have and some of daring to dream. But if there is anything that Souths fans should do is definitely not get too far ahead of themselves. They are currently 7th on the table and if they want to have a second bite at the semi final cherry come September, they will want to finish in the Top 4. Newcastle on the other hand are all but done with their season. They cannot make a run for the semi's (well they can, but only really mathematically) but their focus will now shift on consolidating their roster for coming seasons under the direction of master coach Wayne Bennett. They have almost turned around part of their season in recent weeks with two wins in a row, but you cannot forget the poor football that they have played. They will need lift to a remarkable level if they are to make it tough for a few Top 8 teams. Both teams will have two players returning from SOO duty for QLD and both should play. In years gone by, this was a game that a Souths team with potential would generally lose. As was their clash against the Panther last week but they put in a very good second half performance to put the Panthers away. This game is no different and the Rabbitohs will want to win this game with ease.

South Sydney Rabbitohs
Souths welcome Greg Inglis back to the starting team after SOO. He played a fantastic role for QLD and they certainly were at their best when he had the ball. The NSW players were swatted away like flies when they went to tackle him and he is the main reason Souths fans are excited. As a result, Nathan Merritt moves back to the wing and Andrew Everingham moves back to the centres. Shaun Corrigan drops back to an extended bench and will probably miss out in this game. Souths also welcome dynamic pommy Sam Burgess to their team after being a late inclusion last week. He is unbelievable and a real leader of the Rabbitohs forwards but he needs to get some decent game time under his belt before featuring in the semis. Dave Tyrrell hences moves back to the bench to accomodate for the return of Burgess. In the extended bench, Souths coach Michael Maguire will have to make a decision on which two players will have to miss out. Their forwards will want to dominate this game and have size on their side to do so. Isaac Luke will control the pace of the game out of hooker and with each game that goes by, rookie halfback Adam Reynolds becomes better and better. Both will be looking to stamp their authority on this game.

Newcastle Knights
The Knights copped a blow last week as Kade Snowden was ruled out with a knee injury for around 6-8 weeks. Zeb Taia moves into the starting team to play alongside Willie Mason at prop. The Knights have also named an extended bench with one player to miss out. Wayne Bennett will have to make the decision which way his team goes but the Knights will certainly want every forward on hand to combat the massive Rabbitohs forwards. The Knights do welcome back Darius Boyd from SOO duty and he will resume the fullback role and their fullback from last game, Kevin Naiqama (who was a late inclusion) drops out of the team altogether. Having a very similar team to the last few games in definitely helping the Knights increase the consistency in their play, hopefully this continues. I have mentioned that they have been good in recent weeks but then again the win against Parramatta was very tough for fans to watch.

Recent History
Overall = Rabbitohs 7 - Knights 25
Last 5 games = Rabbitohs 2 - Knights 3
At ANZ Stadium = Rabbitohs 0 - Knights 1

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.25 Knights $4.10
Centrebet = Rabbitohs $1.24 Knights $4.25
Sportsbet = Rabbitohs $1.28 Knights $3.80

Verdict
Its mentioned, in seasons gone by, the Rabbitohs would struggle with a game that they should win. If you look at the two teams together, the Rabbitohs are a much stronger outfit. They have a better pack of forwards with a better backline to finish. Then you compare the two fullbacks and Greg Inglis is streets ahead of Darius Boyd. Souths will look to use Inglis as much as possible but also limit his involvement after being heavily involved in SOO, when he does get the ball, they will want him at his dynamic best. Souths are a different team and with rookie Reynolds playing well behind a good platform set by the forwards, they should be too strong for the Knights in this one.

Suggested Bet
Rabbitohs 13+ @ $2.05

Ride the wave  = Greg Inglis First Try ($8) and/or Last ($8) - He is career best form and is as damaging as ever when running the ball. Why not look to capitalise on that and take him to score first or last. If you had to take just one, I would go first try as if they get out to a good lead, they may take him off.

Winning Margin = Souths 13-18 @ $4.25 - They are very short for 19+ ($2.85) and the Knights have played well in recent weeks so perhaps it might not be a total blowout in this match.

Good luck!
Scooby

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