NRL Round 21 Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights Preview

Sunday footy kicks off down in the Nations Capital at 2pm as the volatile Raiders play host to the increasingly confident Knights. It is a very interesting clash as fans from both sides are still harbouring hopes of making a late run for the Top 8 with 6 games to play. While it is still possible, it does seem a task that is beyond an inconsistent side. One very important outcome will be known by the fulltime whistle. The losing team will almost have their season done and dusted for 2012, but the winning side will be confident for another week. Both teams need to lift and can only control their own performances. So when it comes down to it, that is all they should worry about doing. Interestingly, both teams were last start winners as underdogs away from home. There are also going to be a whole host of external factors impacting on this match. The Raiders possess a more than dominate home record against the Knights and then there is the weather. You can not be sure how cold it will be with the wind chill playing a factor but no player will enjoy the freeing conditions. So, who's hopes will end after this game and who will remain in contention? All will be revealed in this matchup that will feature two desperate sides playing some very desperate footy.

Canberra Raiders

The first question that has to be asked this week, is what Raiders team will show up to this game? Will it be the exciting side that can score a lot of points when needed and can hold teams out defensively? Or will it be the side that leaks easy points and make crucial mistakes in attack? It would take a very brave person to back the Raiders with any confidence in this match but there is some light shining through for them. The uncertainty of coach David Furner's future has quietened down for the time being as Ricky Stuart has signed with Parramatta for the next 3 seasons. Although it may not seem like much, the young players would certainly fill a little more at ease with this news. But they still have their questionable performances to overcome if they're to win this game. There is only one change to the team that was expected once the Raiders welcomed back fullback Josh Dugan into the team last week as a late inclusion. It was a boost that they certainly needed but have not been without as Reece Robinson has played fantastically well at the back for them. As a result, Edrick Lee is dropped as Robinson moves back to the wing. The Raiders have also named an extended bench, just like they did against the Sharks, with one player to drop off prior to kickoff.

Newcastle Knights

The Knights played a great second half last week to fight back from a 19-0 deficit late in the first half and score 24 unanswered points. Apart from their attack being on fire, their defence was also great as they kept a very attacking Warriors team to nil in the second half. With a great performance on a tough road trip, there is no surprise that coach Wayne Bennett has named an unchanged lineup for this clash. This includes the extended bench. A lot of fans would've turned the TV off after a while thinking that the Knights were going to be put away but full credit must go to them for fighting in this game. They are beginning to restore some pride in the jersey that was lost early in the season with some questionable performances. This was always going to occur with players having to adapt to a new style under Bennett and it left a lot of people questioning his coaching ability. Amazing how those same people are now quiet. They will look to continue on their run and keep hope alive for them for another week.

Recent History

Overall = Raiders 20 - Draw 1 - Knights 15

Last 5 games = Raiders 3 - Knights 2

At Canberra Stadium = Raiders 14 - Draw 1 - Knights 3

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Raiders $1.57 Knights $2.45

Centrebet = Raiders $1.57 Knights $2.47

Sportsbet = Raiders $1.57 Knights $2.45

Betfair = Raiders $1.60 Knights $2.60

Verdict
Despite the Raiders impressive home record against the Knights, I am going to tip an upset. You just cannot be sure of the Raiders team that will turn up on the day. What you can be sure of is that Wayne Bennett will have his Knights ready and raring to go after they fought back and scored 24 unanswered points against the Warriors in NZ. Both teams are now playing for their season but with the Knights class in the coaching ranks, they should get home in a close one.

Suggested Bet
Knights @ $2.60 (with Betfair)


Call a margin = Knights 1-12 @ $4 - If I am tipping the Knights then perhaps 1-12 would be the best selection and look at the value on offer. I would be extremely surprised if they won 13+ so lets settle on this option.


Safe call = Knights +10.5 @ $1.50 - If you're worried about the Knights getting home then maybe take them with a larger line. It still makes this game great value for punters and you can rest a little easier if you do think backing the Knights is a risk.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips