Wednesday 11 July 2012

NRL Round 19 Brisbane Broncos v NZ Warriors Preview

Another episode of Friday Night Footy, another Broncos game. But then again you cannot complain when they are a good team to watch play the game. This week they remain at home in Brisbane and host the Warriors. Both teams are in the Top 8 but the Warriors are only in there on points difference, 4 points behind the Broncos who are in 4th. Consistency has departed from the Warriors play for most of the season but has recently crept back in as they have won their past two games. This is momentum that has seen them fight back to 8th spot and are locked in a head to head battle with the Tigers. The Broncos on the other hand suffered a last start loss at home to the Sharks. They were missing a host of SOO players so can be forgiven, but the Sharks were also missing their SOO players. Brisbane had 6 players in the final team that was named for QLD in last Wednesday match, so the bye week would have worked wonders with their recovery. Nothing is more important at this point of the season than having your entire squad on the field. Coach Anthony Griffin also has proven himself as a great coach. He is able to get this young team motivated to achieve what they want and he has them buying into his theory. Now they will be tested. They will want to cement a spot in the Top 4 and avoid a sudden death game in week 1 of the semis. Motivation will be high for both teams and both will be desperate for a win.

Brisbane Broncos
The Broncos will has a mountain of changes this week as they welcome back all of their SOO players. Unfortunately, in the game against the Sharks, they lost Jack Reed to a broken leg and as a result, second rower and stand in captain for that game, Alex Glenn, moves into the centres. Justin Hodges comes back into the centres and Gerard Beale moves back to the wing. It's a completely different look from 10-13. Petro Civoniceva comes in for Mitchell Dodds who moves back to the bench and Sam Thaiday and Matt Gillett come into the second row. Corey Parker will start at lock and Dunamis Lui is named on the bench. Interestingly, SOO players Ben Te'o and Ben Hannatt have been named to start on the bench. This is probably another good move by coach Anthony Griffin that will see his stars well rested at the business end of the season. The Broncos have named an extended bench and one will drop off prior to kickoff and there is no clear indication as to who that will be. The Broncos will be fresh for this clash and their 1, 6, 7 and 9 have been there for majority of the season so there is no need to worry about combinations. The senior players coming back into the squad will definitely add a quality to the Broncos that will see them be able to produce a classy performance when it matters most.

NZ Warriors
The Warriors have suffered a minor setback in losing boom rookie and man mountain, Konrad Hurrell for this clash. Lewis Brown comes into the starting team to play in the centres. Some good news for the Warriors this week and that is the return of Manu Vatuvei on the wing. Omar Slaimankhel is therefore moves back to the bench. Apart from that, the Warriors have the same team that beat the Titans at Skilled Park a week ago. The Warriors also have an extended bench with one player to drop off. It is interesting to note that if the Warriors win this game, they will have beaten all three QLD teams within 3 weeks. Of the 3 games, this is no doubt their biggest challenge. They now have SOO players to face and their forward pack must continue to aim up. Their consistency is always being questioned and this game will be no different. They are a team that likes to take their chances when they are on offer but they are very prone to a high mistake rate. Their bench isn't as strong as it has been in recent weeks but it still does have a lot of size to it. Their defence is what will have to aim up early and they will have to start this game very strong. If they allow the Broncos to get away early, they might find it hard to claw them back.


Recent History
Overall = Broncos 18 - Warriors 12
Last 5 games = Broncos 2 - Warriors 3
At Suncorp Stadium = Broncos 5 - Warriors 2

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Broncos $1.50 Warriors $2.65
Centrebet = Broncos $1.50 Warriors $2.67
Sportsbet = Broncos $1.48 Warriors $2.70
Betfair = Broncos $1.49 Warriors $2.78


Verdict
The Broncos should be too strong in this clash. When you compare to the two teams, the Broncos are considerably stronger. They have their SOO stars returning and two will even start from the bench, such is the quality of their roster. The potential implications of a loss are not exactly detrimental just yet, but a game at home is a game that they should win. The Warriors on the other hand, will be desperate to win this game. They are only in the Top 8 on points difference and each loss brings their season closer to ending earlier than it should. Their halves need to step up and direct their massive pack of forwards around the park. But it won't be easy. The Broncos now posses one of the best interchange benches in the competition and impact is everything in the NRL. If they can set a high standard and intensity from the opening whistle, they can continue it on when the other players come onto the field. It will be a bruising encounter and could possibly cause an injury, but the tougher and more consistent team will win. Going on the form of both teams this season, it's the Broncos.


Suggested Bet
Broncos -5.5 @ $1.90


Think Winning Margin = Broncos 7-12 @ $5.25 - I believe that it will be a close game but the Broncos will cover the line...only leaves one other option if you want a bit of value. 


First Try in another position = Alex Glenn @ $15 - This bloke can find the tryline at when playing in the second row and perhaps playing out wide will give him a little more room to move. Also, don't forget to back him first try scorer of the second half @ $15.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

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