Thursday 28 June 2012

NRL Round 17 Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights Preview

Only one game this Saturday night due to the reduced round for SOO. But for the second Saturday night in a row we will see a battle against two teams who are ranked at the wrong end of the table. Interestingly, both are last start winners and will be look to salvage another two points to keep the harsh critics off their back for another week. The pressure is also on the coaches, but in a very different way. Stephen Kearny is on very thin ice and each win makes it more likely that he will see out the season and perhaps survive the off season as well. On the other hand, Wayne Bennett is the coach with a great winning record who is seemingly safe and rebuilding a club to be very dangerous in years to come, this just is a year they have to go through in order to get results in the future. At some point though, responsibility has to fall on the players. There was a marked improvement in both teams on the weekend in terms of their application and overall effort on the field. The Knights were obviously more impressive after they scored 38 unanswered points against a very good attacking team in the Tigers. It should be interesting to see which team wants it more this week and perhaps they are playing to see which team will move closer to winning the dreaded wooden spoon.

Parramatta Eels
The Eels lose fullback Jarryd Hayne to SOO and Luke Burt moves to fill that position on the field. Ryan Morgan moves from the centres to the wing and the Eels welcome back representative centre Willie Tonga to their lineup. This is a big boost for their team as he offers plenty in both attack and defence for the Eels. They also welcome back Reni Maitua from suspension, he is named on an extended bench. Also named on the bench (18th man last week) is Taniela Lasalo, no doubt he may be the player that misses out again this week. Ben Roberts has also not been named (perhaps dropped as there has been minimal mention of injury) and his place is taken by Luke Kelly. Kelly was a feature in the clubs last game so the NRL isn't too new to him. As mentioned earlier, this could be a battle for the wooden spoon and that is the last thing that the Eels want with long serving clubman Nathan Hindmarsh and Luke Burt both retiring at the end of this season. These two players definitely deserve to go out with some dignity and their teammates should be doing everything possible to avoid this situation. If that isn't added incentive to win, then saving "loved" coach Kearny surely is. Half Chris Sandow must also aim to get move involved in the game and perhaps it is a good thing that Hayne is out because Sandow has played his best footy this season when he has dominated and controlled the team, something that Hayne doesn't always allow as he likes to step in at first receiver.

Newcastle Knights
There would have been a big sigh of relief when the Knights kicked back after being down 14-nil. For a period there, it looked like it could have gotten really ugly for the Knights but full credit to them. The Tigers probably weren't at their best, but you can only play what is infront of you. This week, the Knights are only missing Darius Boyd to SOO duty. Coming into the side to replace him at fullback is Peter Mata'utia. There is also another omission that wouldn't be as noticable and that is Chris Adams has not been named and 18th man from the Tigers clash, Zane Tetevano is named on an extended bench Kevin Naiqama is also present on the bench and will probably be the player that is left out of the lineup. Having a core group of players that are backing up since there last win is definitely significant for the Knights and they will look to build on the momentum that the win has given them. The Knights forwards were beginning to live up to their potential, none more so than Willie Mason. Although he is paid considerably less than Kade Snowden, there is no doubt that Mason is playing well above and beyond what he is paid. Their defence at times against the Tigers had certain ball runners looking around and forced the Tigers into crucial mistakes when bringing the ball out of trouble. They must play with the same level of conviction this week.

Recent History
Overall = Eels 19 - Draw 1 - Knights 22
Last 5 games = Eels 2 - Knights 3
At Parramatta Stadium = Eels 13 - Knights 5


Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Eels $2.10 Knights $1.75
Centrebet = Eels $2.04 Knights $1.81
Sportsbet = Eels $2.05 Knights $1.80

Verdict
This is a tough choice here. Both teams have under performed this season and are definitely in need of a win here. Of course, both are also last start winners and both have their fullback away on SOO duty. Pride is again on the line for these teams so the winner is going to be the team that wants it more (obviously!). But you need to weight up the last start performances and their season to date. While the Knights have been poor in parts, they have also put in some decent performances. Parramatta on the other hand, have been very poor and diabolical this season. On that, you have to go the Knights. They also have a far superior coach on their side that will be using all of his knowledge of how to win without your SOO players. The Eels are at home but the Knights have a better team with a better coach in this clash.
Suggested Bet
Knights @ $1.81 (with Centrebet)


To Prove a Point! = Akuila Uate 1st Try ($7) and/or Last Try ($7) - He was dropped at the beginning of this week and the message from Ricky Stuart was that he was very positive when he heard the news. If he is looking to get back into the team then why not prove a point by scoring some?


Margin = Knights 1-12 @ $3 - It should be a close game due to the Knights poor record at Parramatta stadium so why not take them to win 1 - 12? There is plenty of value in this.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

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