NRL Round 17 NZ Warriors v North Queensland Cowboys Preview

The Warriors return to NRL action after a bye by hosting the Cowboys at their home ground. It would have been a much needed rest for the Warriors after a tough loss to the Sharks in Round 15. It is now getting to the stage of the season where one loss for the Warriors means that they are in even more danger of missing the Top 8. They are currently in 9th place and are two points away from the Tigers who are in 8th (they also have a bye in hand so make it 4 points behind). They can only take care of what happens in their games and one way to ensure their survival into September is to win matches consistently. Consistency is definitely something the Warriors lack and they must address this if their season is to go any further (just check out the Round 17 Power Rankings). The Cowboys are also another team that has lacked consistency but do sit 5th on the table on 20 points with their second bye still to come (in Round 18). In the Cowboys remaining 8 games they play 5 teams that are currently in the Top 8 and two other teams are the Dragons and the Warriors (yes again in Round 23!). So this game now becomes a very important one. They can go into the bye week firmly in the 8 or they can wait until they get their two points next week and then be out the back end of the 8. No SOO stars will also make it very difficult for the Cowboys. In saying that, news is that Matt Bowen has been released by QLD to play this weekends game. Luckily, the Warriors don't have a single player away on representative duty.

NZ Warriors

While the Warriors enjoyed a week off, it was still not enough time for winger Manu Vatuvei to recover from an injury for this clash. His spot is taken on the wing by Glenn Fisiiahi and that change is the only one to their back line. The Warriors also welcome back tough hooker, Nathan Friend from a broken jaw and he is thrown straight into the starting team. Lewis Brown who was filling in for him now moves back to the second row which pushes Elijah Taylor back to lock and regular lock, Feleti Mateo, back to the bench. There is also a swap between a front rower and an interchange player with Sione Lousi moving back to the bench and Russell Packer starting up front. The Warriors have also named an extended bench, with Steve Rapira the man most likely to miss out. It is an interesting side that coach Brian McClennan has gone with here. He has a very powerful bench that has fantastic depth. This should ensure that when these players come onto the field, there is no intensity lost from the starting forwards departure. He has also found a way of continually inspiring dynamic lock Mateo to reach his best in each game. Sometimes this season he has started, while others he has come off the bench, a tactic which allows Mateo to come into the game and create second phase play for the Warriors when he wants to.

North Queensland Cowboys

Matt Bowen was always named for the Cowboys, so it is good news that he has now been offically released for this game. As far as SOO players go, the Cowboys ranked second in terms of players out on SOO duty. The Broncos have 6 away for this clash while the Cowboys have 4 (would've been 5 had Bowen played). So this game becomes a test of their depth at the club, but the shear volume and quality of player that is missing from their side has people already writing them off. Antonio Winterstein moves from the wing to the centres to cover for Tate while Kalifa Faifai Loa takes a spot on the wing. Michael Morgan, a bench player against the Raiders, comes into 5/8 for Thurston. In the forwards, the Cowboys lose their starting front rowers in James Tamou and Matt Scott (Scott didn't play last week after the passing of his mother). Ashton Sims, who is back from suspension, starts up front and is joined by bench player Ricky Thorby. The Cowboys have also named an extended bench that features new inclusions, Joel Riethmuller and Mosese Pangai, as well as Scott's replacement in the last game, Corey Patterson.

Recent History

Overall = Warriors 15 - Cowboys 14

Last 5 games = Warriors 3 - Cowboys 2

At Mt Smart Stadium = Warriors 11 - Cowboys 5

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Warriors $1.18 Cowboys $5.00
Centrebet = Warriors $1.18 Cowboys $5.15
Sportsbet = Warriors $1.20 Cowboys $4.75

Verdict

Looking at the two teams, it appears as though the Warriors will be too strong for their weakened opponents. The Cowboys are missing 4 players to SOO duty whilst the Warriors are virtually at full strength. They also have the added advantage of a very strong bench to come into the game and continue to dominate the Cowboys forwards. This isn't saying the Cowboys are going to lie down easily. They will be tough. But there is always the worry of which Warriors team should show up for this game. As stated above, they virtually have to win 80-90% of their remaining games if they want to make the Top 8. So if they cannot switch on for this game, then they do no deserve to feature in September.

Suggested Bet
Warriors 13+ @ $1.70


Super line = Warriors 19+ @ $2.30 - If you want a little more value in your bet and think that the Warriors will completely dominate the Cowboys, then go for a bigger margin.


Can they stop him? = Konrad Hurrell 1st and/or Last Try @ $11 - He is an extremely damaging ball runner that is hard to stop. Players who have marked up against him have suggested that he is one of the toughest players to tackle. With weakened centres, then perhaps he will find his way to the try line. I am inclined to go 1st try over last but will definitely be investing in both.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips