Its that time of the year that Rugby League fans have been waiting for, one of the biggest games of the year and a game that definitely stops a nation. It is this reason why I generally do like to have similar betting patters to the Melbourne Cup. Firstly, I am not going to give a preview that is similar to the NRL games that I give during each round of the year. I think that most people are going to be flooded with plenty of information to make their own mind up about the game, I am simply only going to give a few suggestions and tips on what could help you make some money in the game. Now why would I compare this game to the Melbourne Cup betting wise? Simply because there will be a lot of money held on the event and you are going to hear every betting guru under the sun talking about "what the money has come for". Each year on the first Tuesday in November, I choose to only invest a small amount of money on a runner which I fancy and then have a few mystery trifecta's on the side. I leave the overall decision up the chance. I believe that it is far better to lose a small amount of money and enjoy the spectacle rather than invest a lot of money and not enjoy the event for what it is. So...it brings me to a few idea's and areas that will be behind my betting patterns on the game. Lets have a look at them:
First Try Scorers
There is 26 players on the field at any one time that can score this (27 if you include the penalty try option) and it can be very frustrating just taking one player and waiting to see if they become involved in the game. So I suggest a few tips to consider when placing your bets.
QLD = Will definitely look to target Michael Jennings in defence. They will continually work him over and aim to tire him down throughout the match. It is for this reason alone that I would look to take either Justin Hodges ($11) (marking up against Jennings) or the winger playing outside of Hodges (something tells me that it will be Brent Tate($11)) to score first for QLD. The second method in taking a first try scorer I would consider would be that QLD could score early off a kick in the middle of the field which has forced pressure on the NSW back 3, so look for a player trailing through up the middle of the field to dive on a loose ball. This could either be Cooper Cronk ($21), Johnathan Thurston ($17) or Cameron Smith ($26).
NSW = Definitely are going to play to their strengths and (apart from their forwards) it is definitely the individuals in their lineup. These players generally always back their ability and will be looking to stamp their authority early on in the game. I would look to Todd Carney ($17), Robbie Farrah ($26) or Jarryd Hayne ($11) to score first for NSW.
First Try Scorer/Margin Double
Origin matches are generally always close, especially game 1. So if you want to take a first try scorer and it isn't enough value for you, then look to add some by giving them a margin as well. If I were doing this, I would take a try scorer for both NSW and QLD and then have two margins (4 bets in total) - NSW 1-12 and QLD 1-12. Yes...this may cost a bit more money then your straight out First Try Scorer bet, but it can yield a larger return.
Margin & Winning Margin
This can provide value in an overall bet if my prediction of a close game is right. NSW 1-6 is paying $6.25 and QLD 1-6 $5.25 so either way their is value there. I honestly cannot see NSW winning by more that 6 points against a QLD team of this quality. But QLD may sneak out to a larger victory of around 7-12 points (also $5.25). So maybe QLD 1-12 is a better bet ($2.75).
Half/Full Double
Straight away, I think that it will be extremely hard for NSW to concede the lead at halftime and then fight back to win the game, especially down in Melbourne (possibly a strong pro-QLD crowd). Therefore I will rule out NSW/NSW and QLD/NSW. The two which I would be inclined to go for are NSW/QLD ($6.50) or QLD/QLD ($2.00).
Tri Bet
A good bet if you are predicting a close game and think that the winning margin will be no more than 6 points. It offers great value at $3.00 for either team to win under 6.5 points. Placing this bet allows you to sit back and enjoy the game (and hoping that it'll be really close).
Man of the Match
I generally do not like betting on this option because it is open to interpretation. In the past, I have seen the decision go totally against what 99.99% of the general public thought. Much like the very biased 3,2,1 points given on the Dally M voting procedure, the halves, hookers and outside backs generally rate the highest. So look to these players to win MOM. But don't forget the Paul Gallen factor, if NSW are to win then be sure that he will play an absolute blinder (I am guessing that he will do this regardless, although he is coming in under an injury cloud).
So there you go folks! I hope that this has allowed you to take some suitable choices that can yield you some money come Wednesday night. Please let me know of any feedback or thoughts that you might have. I would love to hear others opinions on the match.
Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips
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