Friday 25 May 2012

NRL Round 12 St George Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels Preview


The only other Saturday night game is in suburban Kograh as the St George Illawarra Dragons host the Parramatta Eels. One cannot help but wonder that their may have been pressure to move this game to a bigger stadium for this matchup had both teams performed better this season and been at the right end of the table. But they're not and while the Dragons have not been as poor as the Eels, they are certainly not playing to their potential. Across town in the heart of Parramatta, the Eels were able to escape speculation for a week or so having the bye last week and then the controversial try that was awarded late in SOO. It was coming a bit monotonous hearing about a poor Eels performance each weekend after they played, so I am glad we haven't heard how much pressure coach Steve Kearny is under (Yes I did mention it as well a few rounds ago). I know it, you know it, he knows it and more importantly his players know it. But then again I guess the media have to make money one way or another. Nonetheless the Eels will again be under enormous pressure to performance and come away from this one with the win.

St George Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons have had a terrible run of injuries this year and the wear and tear is beginning to show. They have now lost Michael Weyman for what seems to be the remainder of the season. He was definitely a shining light in their play so far and it a shame to see him out for so long, but unfortunately, that is the nature of our game. But in some good news, Beau Scott is back from an elbow injury and Ben Creagh is back into the starting lineup after SOO. He shouldn't be too exhausted after Wednesday night because his involvement was limited. But they are the only two changes to the starting team that lost against Souths in golden point last Sunday. I can almost hear Dragons fans cringe and groan at losing their last two games in golden point. It is not as though they haven't finished games, but late in games their controlled and smart play that they have exemplified in recents season has desserted them. They will only have their minds on one thing in this battle and that is getting the two points...regardless of how scrappy or impressive the victory is, they just want it.

Parramatta Eels
Where to begin with Parramatta? After giving the media a bit about becoming monotonous, I won't go down the same track and say anything about pressure. With only one win this season this game certainly is marked as a "must-win game" if they hold any aspirations of featuring in September. Reni Matua comes back into the team after serving a suspension and former Blues prop Justin Poore comes into the starting side. He has definitely waited a long time to get back to this position and will be going out there with intent to wreak havoc!  Whilst on the topic of SOO, Jarryd Hayne demonstrated what he was capable of during the match and he looked extremely dangerous at points when he had the ball in his hands and free room to more. Maybe that performance could be the catalyst for Hayne regaining some confidence which has evaded him for much of this season. He is a confidence player and without he hasn't been the same player that we once saw. Maybe this could be the turning point of his season and more importantly Parramatta's. If they are to win, he has to fire.

Recent History
Overall = Dragons 11 - Draw 2 - Eels 11
Last 5 games = Dragons 3 - Draw 1 - Eels 1
At WIN Jubilee Oval = Dragons 5 Eels 1

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Dragons $1.40 Eels $3.00
Centrebet = Dragons $1.42 Eels $2.95
Sportsbet = Dragons $1.43 Eels $2.90


Verdict
Parramatta haven't done enough this season to make me want to take them. The Dragons on the other hand are desperate to get back into the winners circle otherwise they will soon find themselves further down the table and a long distance away from the 8. They didn't play that bad against the Bunnies, they were just let down by silly mistakes at crucial points in the game.


Suggested Bet 
St George -7.5 @ $1.90


Value Bet = Dragons 19+ @ $4 - If the Eels are anything like the team which we have seen for majority of this season, then this one could get ugly!


Think about it... = Dragons 1-4 at HT @ $7 - Could be a close one early with the Dragons pulling away in the second half.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

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