The NRL action gets back on track on Friday after SOO on the Wednesday night. It is a great two weeks for footy fans because since last friday there have only been 2 footy-free days without any game and this continues all the way through until MNF at Allianz Stadium. We stay down in Melbourne for this clash between the Storm and the Broncos which gives the SOO players an even money chance of returning immediately after their representative duties. This clash does offer so much, with the Storm and Broncos being two of the form teams in the competition this year. But the game does hinge on who will play for each side after Origin. The Broncos, as they have done since their existence, have a great young roster. They are a team that isn't afraid of a challenge and certainly won't be backing down in this one. The Storm have only suffered one loss this season to the Sharks and will look to have the Big 3 (Slater, Cronk and Smith) firing in this one.
Melbourne Storm
The makeup of the Storm team is going to be heavily influenced on how weel players can back up from Wednesday night. Players have said in the past that they believe it is easier to back up within 24-48 hours and play on the Friday opposed to playing on Sunday and Monday. They have the Big 3 to get through Wednesday, but apart from that the rest of the squad will be well and rested after having a Bye in Round 11. The only enforced change to the squad that lossed to the Sharks will be the omission of Ryan Hoffman who is out for around a month with a hamstring injury. Jesse Bromwich comes into the starting side from the bench to start up front for the Storm.
Brisbane Broncos
It is a very interesting lineup that has been named by coach Anthony Griffin. Matt Gillett is the only Origin representative that has been selected to back up at this stage, with Sam Thaiday, Petro Civoniceva, Ben Hannant and Justin Hodges to be rested. My understanding is that Ben Hannant will be a chance to play depending on how many minutes he gets in Wednesday nights match. Last year Griffin employed the same tactic of resting his SOO stars after matches and it did seem to work wonders in getting the best out of his players at the business end of the season. The added benefit for the Broncos is that they have the squad depth to manage this and are definitely not afraid of throwing young guys into the line of fire to give them a taste of first grade.
Recent History
Overall = Storm 18 - Draw 1 - Broncos 11
Last 5 games = Storm 4 - Broncos 1
At AAMI Stadium - Storm 1 - Broncos 1
Overall = Storm 18 - Draw 1 - Broncos 11
Last 5 games = Storm 4 - Broncos 1
At AAMI Stadium - Storm 1 - Broncos 1
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.45 Broncos $2.85
Centrebet = Storm $1.50 Broncos $2.65
Sportsbet = Storm $.148 Broncos $2.65
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.45 Broncos $2.85
Centrebet = Storm $1.50 Broncos $2.65
Sportsbet = Storm $.148 Broncos $2.65
Verdict
By just measuring both teams on which stars will be backing up after Origin 1, it is very hard to take Brisbane. The odds suggest that the bookies believe Brisbane will run will the same team that was named on Tuesday. The bookies are smart and always do their research, otherwise they will lose lots of money and their jobs! There could be the late addition of perhaps Hannant but he did get through a lot of work in SOO. Melbournes stars will also be battle weary, but with Billy Slater not having the best game of his SOO career, he will be out to prove something here. Smith did play the full 80, like Cronk and Slater, but he was continually in the thick of the action. Cronk did have a fair bit of traffic directed his way but didn't have too much of an involvement otherwise. After this one the Storm don't play again until the following Sunday so expect their stars to be ready for a 9 day rest after this one. Brisbane will be strong, but I think that Melbourne will be stronger!
By just measuring both teams on which stars will be backing up after Origin 1, it is very hard to take Brisbane. The odds suggest that the bookies believe Brisbane will run will the same team that was named on Tuesday. The bookies are smart and always do their research, otherwise they will lose lots of money and their jobs! There could be the late addition of perhaps Hannant but he did get through a lot of work in SOO. Melbournes stars will also be battle weary, but with Billy Slater not having the best game of his SOO career, he will be out to prove something here. Smith did play the full 80, like Cronk and Slater, but he was continually in the thick of the action. Cronk did have a fair bit of traffic directed his way but didn't have too much of an involvement otherwise. After this one the Storm don't play again until the following Sunday so expect their stars to be ready for a 9 day rest after this one. Brisbane will be strong, but I think that Melbourne will be stronger!
Suggested Bet
Melbourne 1-12 @ $2.85Value Bet = Melbourne 7-12 @ $5
First Try Scorer = Billy Slater @ $8.00 (obvious I know but hey he hasn't crossed in a while)
Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips
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