What a great spectacle we have when night footy returns to Brookvale Oval on a Friday night. If you can cast your minds back to one of the last times this occurred, and (correct me if I am wrong) I am sure it was when we saw a brawl between the Eagles and Storm. But in this instance we don't have the hype surrounding a potential stink, just two very physical teams aiming for two points as the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles host the St George Illawarra Dragons. In recent years, rugby league fans will tell you that these are two teams that they love to hate. But be sure, fans of these teams are proud of it. There is no love lost between these two teams either and the stakes are high in this clash. Manly come off a last start loss whilst the Dragons "fell in". Both coaches are beginning to see that potential competitions points are being thrown away to other sides that are playing with a little more conviction. That isn't saying that the two teams here are out of their depth this season, but both have lost matches that should've won this season. Whether or not this plays a factor in their season will not completely be known until the end of the season.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Looking at the Eagles record this season, it would seem very confusing to an outsider as they have dropped crucial competition points against teams that are lower than them on the ladder. That being the Titans, Panthers and Eels. Yet they have also performed very well in big games. Winning matches against the Bulldogs and Broncos. This suggests a few things. Perhaps there is an attitude problem within the squad. They have no trouble getting up for big games but fail to put lower teams to the sword. Or perhaps the players within the squad devalue their opposition and do not respect them for what they're worth. What ever the problem is, it needs to be fixed as soon as possible. You can be sure that coach Geoff Toovey will be emphasising the importance of bouncing back against the Dragons after a very poor performance against the Panthers. They are not without their share of trouble this week either. Steve Matai has been rubbed out for a dangerous tackle in the Penrith game and Dean Whare moves form the wing into the centres and Michael Oldfield comes onto the wing. 5/8 Kieran Foran has been named but is again under an injury cloud after suffering an ankle injury and will have to overcome that to play. Jason King comes back into the team and they have named a 5 man bench.
St George Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons are not without their share of disappointment this season. They have gone down in a few close matches in golden point and haven't exactly been too convincing at different stages. Especially most recently against the Eels. It was a close match and many would say that they were lucky to get home. That was always going to be a tough game and they were lucky to get through it with a win. In a boost for the Dragons, Nathan Fien is named to play off the bench after returning from injury. Trent Merrin moves back into the starting side and the Dragons have named a 6 man bench with 2 to be omitted. The Dragons definitely have the team to get over the line and the forwards to make this match a tough contest through the middle. Mitch Rein is playing well out of hooker and Fien will give some much needed spark off the bench in the middle stages of the game when both teams are playing under fatigue. The Dragons do also have a few players that can be prone to the odd mistake or two but can ill afford to make a mistake against a side like Manly when they're at their best.
Recent History
Overall = Manly 5 - Dragons 14
Last 5 games = Manly 1 - Dragons 4
At Brookvale Oval = Manly 4 - Dragons 4
Overall = Manly 5 - Dragons 14
Last 5 games = Manly 1 - Dragons 4
At Brookvale Oval = Manly 4 - Dragons 4
Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Manly $1.45 Dragons $2.85
Centrebet = Manly $1.48 Dragons $2.72
Sportsbet = Manly $1.50 Dragons $2.65
TAB Sportsbet = Manly $1.45 Dragons $2.85
Centrebet = Manly $1.48 Dragons $2.72
Sportsbet = Manly $1.50 Dragons $2.65
Verdict
Despite the rather large gap between betting prices, I think that this match will be a lot closer than everyone thinks. I dare say that the reason Manly is so short is because people are banking on the fact that they will "bounce back" after their loss to the Panthers. Throw in the fact that the Dragons only scraped home against the Eels and then the price gap does seem reasonable. If Manly are fighting fit and have their full strength team, they would be my pick with no hesitation, but they aren't at this stage for this clash. I still think that a the Dragons team will go down in a very close one. Not saying that they do not have the fire power to match Manly, but they don't seem to have the spark that can allow them to score points quickly.
Despite the rather large gap between betting prices, I think that this match will be a lot closer than everyone thinks. I dare say that the reason Manly is so short is because people are banking on the fact that they will "bounce back" after their loss to the Panthers. Throw in the fact that the Dragons only scraped home against the Eels and then the price gap does seem reasonable. If Manly are fighting fit and have their full strength team, they would be my pick with no hesitation, but they aren't at this stage for this clash. I still think that a the Dragons team will go down in a very close one. Not saying that they do not have the fire power to match Manly, but they don't seem to have the spark that can allow them to score points quickly.
Suggested Bet
Manly 1-12 @ $2.90
Value Bet = Manly 1-6 @ $6 - I do think that it will be a close contest and taking the Dragons good record into account at Brookvale Oval, a more specific winning margin may be worth a thought.
First Try Scorer = Either Manly centre: Lyon & Whare both $13 - I am not sure who is marking up against Kyle Stanley but he can be found wanting in defence at certain times during a match.
Good luck!
Value Bet = Manly 1-6 @ $6 - I do think that it will be a close contest and taking the Dragons good record into account at Brookvale Oval, a more specific winning margin may be worth a thought.
First Try Scorer = Either Manly centre: Lyon & Whare both $13 - I am not sure who is marking up against Kyle Stanley but he can be found wanting in defence at certain times during a match.
Good luck!
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