NRL Round 13 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v St George Illawarra Dragons Preview

What a great spectacle we have when night footy returns to Brookvale Oval on a Friday night. If you can cast your minds back to one of the last times this occurred, and (correct me if I am wrong) I am sure it was when we saw a brawl between the Eagles and Storm. But in this instance we don't have the hype surrounding a potential stink, just two very physical teams aiming for two points as the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles host the St George Illawarra Dragons. In recent years, rugby league fans will tell you that these are two teams that they love to hate. But be sure, fans of these teams are proud of it. There is no love lost between these two teams either and the stakes are high in this clash. Manly come off a last start loss whilst the Dragons "fell in". Both coaches are beginning to see that potential competitions points are being thrown away to other sides that are playing with a little more conviction. That isn't saying that the two teams here are out of their depth this season, but both have lost matches that should've won this season. Whether or not this plays a factor in their season will not completely be known until the end of the season.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Looking at the Eagles record this season, it would seem very confusing to an outsider as they have dropped crucial competition points against teams that are lower than them on the ladder. That being the Titans, Panthers and Eels. Yet they have also performed very well in big games. Winning matches against the Bulldogs and Broncos. This suggests a few things. Perhaps there is an attitude problem within the squad. They have no trouble getting up for big games but fail to put lower teams to the sword. Or perhaps the players within the squad devalue their opposition and do not respect them for what they're worth. What ever the problem is, it needs to be fixed as soon as possible. You can be sure that coach Geoff Toovey will be emphasising the importance of bouncing back against the Dragons after a very poor performance against the Panthers. They are not without their share of trouble this week either. Steve Matai has been rubbed out for a dangerous tackle in the Penrith game and Dean Whare moves form the wing into the centres and Michael Oldfield comes onto the wing. 5/8 Kieran Foran has been named but is again under an injury cloud after suffering an ankle injury and will have to overcome that to play. Jason King comes back into the team and they have named a 5 man bench.

St George Illawarra Dragons

The Dragons are not without their share of disappointment this season. They have gone down  in a few close matches in golden point and haven't exactly been too convincing at different stages. Especially most recently against the Eels. It was a close match and many would say that they were lucky to get home. That was always going to be a tough game and they were lucky to get through it with a win. In a boost for the Dragons, Nathan Fien is named to play off the bench after returning from injury. Trent Merrin moves back into the starting side and the Dragons have named a 6 man bench with 2 to be omitted. The Dragons definitely have the team to get over the line and the forwards to make this match a tough contest through the middle. Mitch Rein is playing well out of hooker and Fien will give some much needed spark off the bench in the middle stages of the game when both teams are playing under fatigue. The Dragons do also have a few players that can be prone to the odd mistake or two but can ill afford to make a mistake against a side like Manly when they're at their best.

Recent History
Overall = Manly 5 - Dragons 14
Last 5 games = Manly 1 - Dragons 4
At Brookvale Oval = Manly 4 - Dragons 4

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Manly $1.45 Dragons $2.85
Centrebet = Manly $1.48 Dragons $2.72
Sportsbet = Manly $1.50 Dragons $2.65

Verdict
Despite the rather large gap between betting prices, I think that this match will be a lot closer than everyone thinks. I dare say that the reason Manly is so short is because people are banking on the fact that they will "bounce back" after their loss to the Panthers. Throw in the fact that the Dragons only scraped home against the Eels and then the price gap does seem reasonable. If Manly are fighting fit and have their full strength team, they would be my pick with no hesitation, but they aren't at this stage for this clash. I still think that a the Dragons team will go down in a very close one. Not saying that they do not have the fire power to match Manly, but they don't seem to have the spark that can allow them to score points quickly.

Suggested Bet

Manly 1-12 @ $2.90


Value Bet = Manly 1-6 @ $6 - I do think that it will be a close contest and taking the Dragons good record into account at Brookvale Oval, a more specific winning margin may be worth a thought.


First Try Scorer = Either Manly centre: Lyon & Whare both $13 - I am not sure who is marking up against Kyle Stanley but he can be found wanting in defence at certain times during a match.


Good luck!

Scooby
@scoobystips

NRL Round 13 Gold Coast Titans v North Queensland Cowboys

Friday night footy see's an unusual occurrence this weekend when the Brisbane Broncos don't play on a Friday for the first time this regular season (apart from when they had the bye). Instead, we are up at Skilled Park to see the Gold Coast Titans host the North Queensland Cowboys in another version of a QLD Derby. This game will obviously not be shown live into NSW but Im sure that the people of the Blue state would like to see this match. It is sure to be a great clash between two sides who can play some great football when they need to. The Titans are slowly getting things together and beginning to play with more and more confidence with each win that they have. The Cowboys are a team which I believe are outsiders to win the premiership this year. They definitely have the players to get them over the line, it is just a matter of everyone putting their hand up each week and not solely relying on Thurston to get them over the line. They also have to develop some form of consistency about their play if they are to give this competition a shake. Both teams will be out to play some entertaining football and hopefully the Titans get a decent crowd in to view this game as the competition reaches the halfway point of the regular season. It is interesting to note that the Titans also upset the Cowboys in the first game of the season at home, winning 18-0, one of the big shocks of round 1.

Gold Coast Titans

If I were writing this 5 weeks ago, I would be giving the Titans a serve for being perennial underachievers and players not being worthy the big money that some of them are making. Oh what a difference a few weeks and a few wins can make. It should be noted that the Titans are still underachieving. They did beat the Bulldogs at Suncorp a few weeks ago but that was a Bulldogs team that never seemed interested in the match. Then they came down to Newcastle last week and defeated the hapless Knights who would give Parramatta a good run for their money. Although they have been winning ugly, they certainly have been getting the job done. There is only one change to the team from last week and that comes as Nate Myles is moved into the starting team for Luke Douglas, who moves back to the bench. Apart from that, the Titans will field the same team. Myles started off the bench last week after (amazingly) winning MOM in SOO. The Titans will definitely have to clean up their scrappy way of winning games and improve their execution for this one. They also have a very poor home record this season that they will be looking to turn around. Putting on a winning performance will definitely go a long way to winning the fans around the area back.

North Queensland Cowboys

As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys are a team with enormous potential to stick around until the first weekend in October. That is if they have all of their players back on deck and learn how to play consistent footy. Losing to the Tigers last week wasn't a complete disaster, but what it does do is knock out a bit of confidence from their players and have them begin to question their potential. Throw in a very short turn around from last week and the Cowboys do look vulnerable. Coach Neil Henry has had his hand forced by a tough schedule and has named an unchanged lineup from last week. He does have a 5 man bench and Corey Paterson does look like the man most likely to drop off the bench in this one.

Recent History
Overall = Titans 5 - Cowboys 5
Last 5 games = Titans 2 - Cowboys 3
At Skilled Park = Titans 2 - Cowboys 2

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Titans $2.20 Cowboys $1.70
Centrebet = Titans $2.30 Cowboys $1.65
Sportsbet = Titans $2.28 Cowboys $1.65

Verdict
So the Titans have won a few games and all of a sudden there is a buzz that they're beginning to live up to their potential. And so they should looking at their roster! But this will definitely be a big test for them this week to see just how well they are doing in the competition. The Cowboys aren't exactly the most consistent team in the competition and the team can easily be done in this one. As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys were dusted 18-nil by the Titans in Round 1 at home. But when all things are considered and you compare the two teams, the Cowboys prevail. They definitely have the stronger bench and tougher forward pack. As for the outside backs, they have the speed and ability to finish off a great attacking play from Thurston at half.

Suggested Bet
Cowboys -2.5 @ $1.90


Value Bet = Cowboys 13+ @ $3.50 - If the Cowboys can get away to a good start, they can easily pile the points on in bunches so expect nothing less from them if they have the momentum. 


Just a thought... = Brent Tate first (or even last) try scorer @ $11 - Has been in great form of late and wouldn't surprise.

Good luck!

Scooby
@scoobystips

NRL Round 12 Sydney Roosters v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Monday Night Footy takes us out to Allianz Stadium to see the Roosters host the Bulldogs. This game will end what has been a great round of footy after a very impressive SOO on Wednesday. On that note, the SOO stars in each game this week have definitely excelled themselves in this round. Some have suggested that this is always the case as the SOO players have reached a higher level of play during the week and then continue that level into their clubs fixture. This game only has two players returning from SOO in Mitchell Pearce (Roosters) and Josh Morris (Bulldogs) who both featured for NSW, but their clubs will happily welcome them back as they will be a key figure in getting their side over the line. The Roosters do look like a team on the rise as they are full of youngsters who are very capable of producing impressive individual performances. The only problem for them is coming into this game is that they have has a few narrow losses in recent weeks. This could possibly affect the teams confidence and the Roosters need to be reminded of how to grind out a tough victory which they have let slip. The Bulldogs will definitely take it to them in the forwards as they have worked really well this year in taking the ball to the line and shifting it between a few sets of hands. The game will be won and lost in the middle part of the field but strap yourself in for what should be a decent game of footy to watch.

Sydney Roosters

As mentioned earlier, the Roosters are a young side who has lost a few tough games in recent weeks by only the smallest of margins. In the NRL you have to be able to play for the whole 80 minutes and not doing this will see you at the wrong end of the table. The young Roosters will be determined to grind out a victory in this one. Mitchell Pearce returns to the lineup after SOO and Daniel Mortimer drops back to an extended bench. Coach Brian Smith has gone with the same team that lost to Manly the previous week. Kiwi centre Shaun Kenny-Dowell is still out so monster centre Tautau Moga remains in the side. The Roosters will definitely benefit from having Pearce back in the side as he will give them great direction around the park. Hooker Jake Friend has also been playing well through the middle so expect him to take his forwards over the advantage line.


Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
The Bulldogs played well last start, all be it a weakened Sharks team. They have played some good footy at times and have taken the battle to some fairly decent teams. But on the other hand, they have also played pretty poorly in losses to Souths and the Titans. Hasler will again have his team ready for this clash and at the moment his forwards are the difference between them winning and losing. Their are a few changes to the team this week, most notably the inclusion of Josh Morris. Bryson Goodwin is out injured and although Luke McDougall is named in the team, I doubt he will play after suffering an elbow injury in their last MNF clash. Interestingly during the week, the Bulldogs signed Warriors outside back Kristan Inu in a mid season transfer. I think that he would come into the side for McDougall and Inu would start on the wing. He will offer them some speed on the flanks and Bulldogs fans will be hoping that he shows the good form that he is capable of rather than the mistake-riddled player which saw him dropped down to NSW Cup since leaving the Eels a few seasons ago.


Recent History
Overall = Roosters 78 - Draw 5 - Bulldogs 75
Last 5 = Roosters 2 Bulldogs 3
At Allianz Stadium = Roosters 10 Bulldogs 9


Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Roosters $2.35 Bulldogs $1.60
Centrebet = Roosters $2.30 Bulldogs $1.65
Sportsbet = Roosters $2.30 Bulldogs $11.65


Verdict
This is a tough game to pick. If I were you, I would have to first try scorers (one from either team) and leave it there. If that doesn't take your fancy, take a few mystry "Pick-the-scores" to make it interesting. The option I have given for my suggested bet might even be something for you to consider. But then again I am here to pass judgement of the match. I believe that the Roosters will win this game. There is something about the Bulldogs this year that has seen them play some great football but they are too inconsistent for my liking. The Roosters have suffered some close losses in recent weeks and will be even hungrier to get over the line in this one.

Suggested Bet
Roosters +10.5 (Super-Line) @ $1.40


Value Bet = Roosters 1-12 @ $3.50 - Can't see the Rooster winning 13+ but can see them winning, so why not take them 1-12 if you believe that they can get the 2 points.


Just a thought... = Kristan Inu First and Last Try Scorer @ $13 (each) - First game for his new club so he will be in around looking for a try.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

NRL Round 12 West Tigers v North Queensland Cowboys Preview

The NRL "Match-of-the-day" takes us out to Campbelltown Sports Ground for a clash between the West Tigers and the North Queensland Cowboys. This clash has somewhat been overlooked for its sheer promise as the Tigers seem to be a team on the up and the Cowboys are consistently inconsistent. Both teams have had remarkably different seasons, yet find themselves in similar vains of form coming into this clash. The Tigers were once touted as premiership favourites by the bookies but have slipped down to almost the third line of betting after some very poor performances. The Cowboys come into this game on the back of a tough win without their SOO stars over Penrith at home, whilst the Tigers have ground out a few wins in recent weeks and gaining some momentum with some adequate football. They haven't exactly been clinical, but they have been doing enough to get the 2 points and in this competition, thats all you need to do.

West Tigers

The Tigers are happy to welcome back Robbie Farrah into their lineup after Origin. They definitely missed him working the Warriors forwards over in and around the ruck last week. Apart from that, Curtis Sironen has been named on an extended bench by coach Tim Sheens. This could be the return of a once famous name for the Tigers with Curtis being the son of former great Paul. As mentioned earlier, the Tigers haven't been too convincing but have been winning. I think that they will definitely be tested this week and have a forward pack that in my opinion has failed to dominate opposition forwards in previous games. This is a crucial in this battle and they must look to turn this around in this clash otherwise they could find themselves on the back foot. It is promising that Farrah returns to the starting team because he will aim to have the forwards going over the advantage line with each run.

North Queensland Cowboys

There are a host of changes for the Cowboys who get 4 players back from SOO duty. They got away with a win last week without these players and will welcome their stars back into the lineup to strengthen their squad. Most notably, Jonathan Thurston returns at 7. One thing the Cowboys missed last Saturday was a good general getting them around the field. Also they gain Matt Scott, Brent Tate and James Tamou. Brent Tate was in great form for QLD in SOO so look for him to be dangerous as always and have another solid game. It should be known that coach Niel Henry has named an extended bench to cover for the possibility that his SOO stars won't be able to back up but I don't think that it will be an issue for this clash.

Recent History

Overall = Tigers 13 - Cowboys 11

Last 5 games = Tigers 4 Cowboys 1

At Campbelltown Sports Ground = Tigers 2 Cowboys 2

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Tigers $1.55 Cowboys $2.50

Centrebet = Tigers $1.60 Cowboys $2.40

Sportsbet = Tigers $1.60 Cowboys $2.40

Verdict

The Tigers are always a dangerous team to write off and have always shown that you should never do this. I am not going to write them off completely, but I am going to say that I will take the Cowboys. They just take y fancy more than the Tigers do because of the quality of players that are returning to their lineup and their ability to ground out victory. One thing that people will always talk aout when the Cowboys travel down to Sydney is their poor record down here. Well they haven't been that poor in the last year or so and if you look at the history at this ground, an away match for the Cowboys shouldn't worry you too much. It will be a great battle up front and the Tigers will have the superior hooker, but I believe that the class of Thurston and the toughness of their forwards will get them through in a close one.

Suggested Bet

Cowboys @ $2.50

Value Bet = Cowboys 1-12 @ $3.75

Just a thought... = Cowboys 1-6 @ $7 - I think that it will be a very close battle so why not be more specific than 1-12 and go a margin of 1-6? If I had to compare the two, I would go 1-12 but this is definitely "worth thought"!

Good luck!

Scooby

@scoobystips

NRL Round 12 Penrith Panthers v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Preview

Sunday footy begins in Sydney's west as the Penrith Panthers host the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles. Penrith have under performed this season so far and after they beat the Dragons in golden point, they seemed to be getting their season back on track. Then they headed north to take on a weak Cowboys team and were unable to get the win, narrowly going down by 2 points. Nonetheless, they definitely did play like a more convicted team who was determined to perform in attack and defence. Michael Jennings avoids speculation over which team he would play for this week (Panther or their reserves, Windsor Wolves) as he is suspended for one game follow a brain snap in SOO. Manly also have their share of distress coming into this clash. Tony Williams, who was suspended for 7 weeks and then played SOO, is out for around another 5-7 weeks with what appears to be a back injury. It is devastating for the Eagles that this happened because even after an enforced lay off, he looked as damaging as ever on Wednesday night. But the competition rolls on and Manly will be looking to get through this one relatively easily but the Panther won't be giving up without a fight.

Penrith Panthers

Coach Ivan Cleary has stuck with the same team that narrowly lost to the Cowboys. The only change to the starting lineup is that SOO star and captain Luke Lewis, returns to the starting side at lock. His presence definitely will lift those around him as his play is inspirational at the least of times. The Panthers will have to hope that their forwards take control early and assert their dominance in this one. Hooker Kevin Kingston is playing very well at the moment and needs to work over the Manly forwards over close to the ruck. It is very hard to see Penrith getting the money in this game, but then again, stranger things have happened.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

The Eagles have named all of their SOO players to back up in this one but obviously Williams will have to be replaced in the side. There has not been a player named yet so standby for that one. I doubt it will have any great bearing on the result but it will be handy to know. Although he went off early last week, 5/8 Kieran Foran is named to play. It was said that he could have returned to the field last week but the coaching staff thought it would be better to give him a rest anyway. It would not surprise me if they left him out of this one and started his brother Liam.

Recent History

Overall = Panthers 26 - Draw 1 - Manly 46

Last 5 games = Panthers 1 - Manly 4

At Centrebet Stadium = Panthers 16 - Draw 1 - Manly 21

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Panthers $3.35 Manly $1.35

Centrebet = Panthers $3.05 Manly $1.40

Sportsbet = Panthers $3.05 Manly $1.40

Verdict

Penrith will struggle to get out of this one with a win. Manly are a far superior team and should be too strong for them in the forwards and the outside back. For Manly, it's a matter of by "how many". Don't think that I am suggesting that this game will be a walk over for Manly, but they should get the points without any trouble. Much like last game against the Roosters where they won the game by 8 points in the end, you always felt that they were going to get the win and could always have lifted to another level if they needed to. I cannot definitively say by what margin so I won't tip that in this one, just going to go Manly for the win.

Suggested Bet

Manly @ $1.40

Value bet = Manly/Manly @ $1.80 - Although it isn't much value, it could prop up a sports multi of some sort.

Another thought... = Total points Over 40.5 @ $1.85 - Daytime footy brings out the best in the NRL teams and this one should be no different.

Good luck!

Scooby

@scoobystips

NRL Round 12 St George Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels Preview

The only other Saturday night game is in suburban Kograh as the St George Illawarra Dragons host the Parramatta Eels. One cannot help but wonder that their may have been pressure to move this game to a bigger stadium for this matchup had both teams performed better this season and been at the right end of the table. But they're not and while the Dragons have not been as poor as the Eels, they are certainly not playing to their potential. Across town in the heart of Parramatta, the Eels were able to escape speculation for a week or so having the bye last week and then the controversial try that was awarded late in SOO. It was coming a bit monotonous hearing about a poor Eels performance each weekend after they played, so I am glad we haven't heard how much pressure coach Steve Kearny is under (Yes I did mention it as well a few rounds ago). I know it, you know it, he knows it and more importantly his players know it. But then again I guess the media have to make money one way or another. Nonetheless the Eels will again be under enormous pressure to performance and come away from this one with the win.

St George Illawarra Dragons

The Dragons have had a terrible run of injuries this year and the wear and tear is beginning to show. They have now lost Michael Weyman for what seems to be the remainder of the season. He was definitely a shining light in their play so far and it a shame to see him out for so long, but unfortunately, that is the nature of our game. But in some good news, Beau Scott is back from an elbow injury and Ben Creagh is back into the starting lineup after SOO. He shouldn't be too exhausted after Wednesday night because his involvement was limited. But they are the only two changes to the starting team that lost against Souths in golden point last Sunday. I can almost hear Dragons fans cringe and groan at losing their last two games in golden point. It is not as though they haven't finished games, but late in games their controlled and smart play that they have exemplified in recents season has desserted them. They will only have their minds on one thing in this battle and that is getting the two points...regardless of how scrappy or impressive the victory is, they just want it.

Parramatta Eels
Where to begin with Parramatta? After giving the media a bit about becoming monotonous, I won't go down the same track and say anything about pressure. With only one win this season this game certainly is marked as a "must-win game" if they hold any aspirations of featuring in September. Reni Matua comes back into the team after serving a suspension and former Blues prop Justin Poore comes into the starting side. He has definitely waited a long time to get back to this position and will be going out there with intent to wreak havoc!  Whilst on the topic of SOO, Jarryd Hayne demonstrated what he was capable of during the match and he looked extremely dangerous at points when he had the ball in his hands and free room to more. Maybe that performance could be the catalyst for Hayne regaining some confidence which has evaded him for much of this season. He is a confidence player and without he hasn't been the same player that we once saw. Maybe this could be the turning point of his season and more importantly Parramatta's. If they are to win, he has to fire.

Recent History
Overall = Dragons 11 - Draw 2 - Eels 11
Last 5 games = Dragons 3 - Draw 1 - Eels 1
At WIN Jubilee Oval = Dragons 5 Eels 1

Odds

TAB Sportsbet = Dragons $1.40 Eels $3.00
Centrebet = Dragons $1.42 Eels $2.95
Sportsbet = Dragons $1.43 Eels $2.90


Verdict
Parramatta haven't done enough this season to make me want to take them. The Dragons on the other hand are desperate to get back into the winners circle otherwise they will soon find themselves further down the table and a long distance away from the 8. They didn't play that bad against the Bunnies, they were just let down by silly mistakes at crucial points in the game.

Suggested Bet 
St George -7.5 @ $1.90


Value Bet = Dragons 19+ @ $4 - If the Eels are anything like the team which we have seen for majority of this season, then this one could get ugly!


Think about it... = Dragons 1-4 at HT @ $7 - Could be a close one early with the Dragons pulling away in the second half.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

NRL Round 12 Newcastle Knight v Gold Coast Titans Preview

Super Saturday (well minus 1 game) kicks off at Hunter Stadium as the Newcastle Knights host the Gold Coast Titans. Both teams have struggled this season and have been affected by injuries throughout the beginning of the year. There was a lot of hype around at the beginning of the season for Newcastle after they signed Wayne Bennett from the Dragons. But what he couldn't plan for was the injury toll. There is definitely a difference in their attitude this year but Bennett was never going to make a great impact other than this in his first year of coaching because he didn't have all of the players there that he wanted. The Titans have been very disappointing thus far, despite beating Manly at Brookvale and coming off a win over the Bulldogs. Regardless, their coach John Cartwright is another coach that is under a tonne of pressure. His player can be accused of under performing at certain times but the reason this has occurred is because the players that the Titans have are full of potential, they're just failing to fullfil it at this stage. When they do click, it is good to watch. They have absolute speedsters on either wings that can not only finish off a back line movement but leap high into the air or get on the end of a well placed kick. Both teams come into this round off a Bye and will have relished the week off to rest the bumps and bruises. It is very early on the season and I know that you shouldn't say this, but there is a lot on the line for both teams at this point in the season and that includes a spot in the final 8 come September.

Newcastle Knights

Some good news for the Knights coming into this one with the return of skipper Danny Buderus from a chronic Achilles injury to start at hooker and (Waltzin') Matt Hilder goes back to the bench. Joel Edwards also return to the 17 from suspension. Coming off the Bye, the Knights resume after the previous week suffer a home loss to the Cowboys. They will be hoping that 2 of their back 3 get through SOO without injury. Darius Boyd and Akuila Uate both play on the wings and should definitely feature in this one. The Knights can ill-afford to rest players with the injury toll that they have. In their general play this season the Knights have look poor, but they have looked tough in defence (not all the time) and have been able to hold out teams for extended periods of time. But when they crack, they tend to leak a lot of points. As mentioned, they have suffered a fair few injuries this season which has definitely lead to very dour football throughout the season. A lot of league fans will agree with me when I say this, but the game that the Knights played against the Panther on MNF a few weeks ago was one of the most boring football games I have seen in a long time. They have to lift to another level for this one.

Gold Coast Titans

The Titans have been very similar to the Knights this season, but they have had the luxury of offering a lot more in terms of available players. Throw in the fact that they have a better roster and they are far more disappointing. There are a few changes to the team that was successful 25-14 over the Bulldogs in their last start. Scott Prince has overcome an injury and is named (please note he did also play against the Dogs) and Jordan Rankin drops out of the team for this one. Ben Ridge and Matt White come onto an extended bench, obviously incase either Nate Myles, Greg Bird or Ashley Harrison do not come through the SOO game well enough to back up for this game. These 3 players will be important to the overall result as the Titans rely on their hard nosed attitude in defence and they will definitely miss it in and around the ruck. But in saying that, they have been named and they are tough players so expected them to run out in this one.

Recent History
Overall = Knights 5 Titans 3
Last 5 = Knights 3 Titans 2
At Hunter Stadium = Knights 3 Titans 1

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Knights $.155 Titans $2.50
Centrebet = Knights $1.55 Titans $2.50
Sportsbet = Knights $1.50 Titans $2.65

Verdict
As I am writing this I am desperately trying to find out the availability of the Titans SOO players. Otherwise, I am finding it extremely puzzling to understand why the Knights are favorites and Titans are out to $2.50. I can smell an upset coming and will be backing it. The Knights have been very hard to have this season and are still reeling from a horrific injury toll. They do get Buderus back for this one, but if all the Titans SOO stars play then I will be taking them (even if 1 or 2 play I still like them). They will have confidence coming off a last start victory over the Bulldogs and did actually play some entertaining footy. Forget the fact that they are playing away from home, this season all of their victories have been on the road.

Suggested Bet
Titans @ $2.65 (with Sportsbet)


Value = Titans 1-12 @ $3.75


Another thought... = The TAB is offering the Titans +8.5 @ $1.53. So if you are a little hesitant to take them straight out, then perhaps think of this bet.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

NRL Round 12 South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders Preview

The Sydney game of Friday night footy is at ANZ for a game between the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Canberra Raiders. This game will take an unusual preference over the game down in Melbourne as it will be beamed live into Sydney. Although perhaps this is the better option for 9 because there is the possibility that a host of SOO start could be missing form the other game. Regardless of the situation, I think that Channel 9 should not have the luxury of picking and choosing which game they broadcast to the general public. But there will be more of this once the TV rights are up for debate later this year, for now its the footy. The Bunnies go into this match off a very good performance against a St George team that had a lot at stake, losing the last two and with a stronger team on paper. But the Bunnies fought back in a tough contest and prevaled in golden point when Adam Reynolds slotted a field goal from around 35m out. It is interesting to note that the Rabbits never led at any stage of the game until that field goal was kicked in the 83rd minute. The Raiders come into this game off the back of a Bye and a high scoring victory over the hapless Parramatta Eels in Round 10. It is definitely concerning that the Raiders allowed the Eels to score 34 points against them at home and coach David Furner will certainly be hoping for a greater attitude in defence this week. Defence has been a priority for the Bunnies this year and they will again defend well through the middle. The Raiders look as though they are a team that hasn't figured out their correct style of play just yet, which does add in the element of surprise in this one.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Rabbits go into this encounter with the same team that got the job done against the Dragons. Its interesting that the team from that encounter was minus their SOO stars, Greg Inglis and David Taylor. They have been added to an extended bench, along with Chris McQueen. It is obvious that coach Michael McGuire will give his stars the best chance to recover from Wednesday night and see how they come through the match. Inglis is certain to play a full game out in the centres but Taylor will be coming off the bench for QLD so his minutes may be limited, but in saying that, he does go 100-miles-an-hour and will be looking to make an impact immediately in Origin. So who knows what bumps and bruises that he may come off with. As mentioned earlier, the Bunnies have had defended with great conviction and enthusiasm this season which has not resembled a Bunnies team of years gone by. They have a very dynamic forward pack which sets a great platform for Reynolds to work from. They also have the added bonus of arguably the inform hooker of the 2012 season, Isaac Luke, continually getting them over the advantage line. Throw in pommy superstar Sam Burgess and Michael Crocker, and the Souths pack does have a lot of grunt and won't take a backward step. The one downfall in their team is 5/8 John Sutton. While his 2012 form has been a marked improvement on seasons gone by, he certainly is a liability in defence and hasn't been giving the young half, Reynolds, a lot of support. Let's see if he proves himself in this one.

Canberra Raiders

As I have mentioned in recent weeks, coach David Furner is lucky that the Eels have done as poorly as they have this season. Otherwise he would be one coach in the NRL that would be looking over his shoulder. He already has a mountain of pressure riding on him but has been able to escape this so far. But the pressure isn't relived going into this one with star fullback Josh Dugan and robust winger Blake Ferguson being stood down for breaking the clubs alcohol policy. Many suggest that Dugan was unlucky not to be down in Melbourne in the past week with the Blues. But he certainly does have an attitude problem, as does Ferguson so I applaud the Raiders for the tough stance they have taken. As a result, regular winger Reece Robinson moves to fullback and Edrick Lee starts on the wing. Other changes include Joel Thompson moving from second row to centre and Bronson Harrison covers him in the second row. Robinson is definitely not a out of his depth in this one. He has filled in for Dugan at the back this season and will give the Raiders plenty in attack and has very good positional play in defence. As for the winger Lee, he has a lot of people around the scene singing this kids praises. Some have suggested that he will slot in nicely out wide and has the ability to finish off back line moves. But the to win a game you not only have to attack, but also defend. The Raiders this season have looked poor at times defending their line and unless their is a serious change of attitude towards their defence, they will struggle to hold out a South Sydney team that is full of confidence.

Recent History
Overall = Bunnies 17 - Raiders 27
Last 5 = Bunnies 2 - Raiders 3
At ANZ Stadium = Bunnies 1 - Raiders 3

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Bunnies $1.22 Raiders $4.50
Centrebet = Bunnies $1.30 Raiders $3.65
Sportsbet = Bunnies $1.28 Raiders $3.65

Verdict

Regardless of whether the Bunnies  SOO stars play, I believe that they will be too strong. They have a great forward pack and have a great hooker getting them over the advantage line. The Raiders do have a big forward pack that can serve it up to the Bunnies forwards but as mentioned earlier, this is a different Souths team. If the SOO stars do play, then expect a big game from both of them. Inglis has been electric at the back for Souths and Taylor didn't exactly get a lot of time on the field so should be fresh enough to go again in this one. One thing holding him back may be back spasms that he was suggested of having during the SOO match.


Suggested Bet
Souths 13+ @ $2.10
Value = Souths 13-18 @ $4.25
First Try Scorer = Isaac Luke @ $17 - If they get close enough, be sure that he will be looking around to strike one early.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

NRL Round 12 Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos Preview

The NRL action gets back on track on Friday after SOO on the Wednesday night. It is a great two weeks for footy fans because since last friday there have only been 2 footy-free days without any game and this continues all the way through until MNF at Allianz Stadium. We stay down in Melbourne for this clash between the Storm and the Broncos which gives the SOO players an even money chance of returning immediately after their representative duties. This clash does offer so much, with the Storm and Broncos being two of the form teams in the competition this year. But the game does hinge on who will play for each side after Origin. The Broncos, as they have done since their existence, have a great young roster. They are a team that isn't afraid of a challenge and certainly won't be backing down in this one. The Storm have only suffered one loss this season to the Sharks and will look to have the Big 3 (Slater, Cronk and Smith) firing in this one.

Melbourne Storm

The makeup of the Storm team is going to be heavily influenced on how weel players can back up from Wednesday night. Players have said in the past that they believe it is easier to back up within 24-48 hours and play on the Friday opposed to playing on Sunday and Monday. They have the Big 3 to get through Wednesday, but apart from that the rest of the squad will be well and rested after having a Bye in Round 11. The only enforced change to the squad that lossed to the Sharks will be the omission of Ryan Hoffman who is out for around a month with a hamstring injury. Jesse Bromwich comes into the starting side from the bench to start up front for the Storm.

Brisbane Broncos

It is a very interesting lineup that has been named by coach Anthony Griffin. Matt Gillett is the only Origin representative that has been selected to back up at this stage, with Sam Thaiday, Petro Civoniceva, Ben Hannant and Justin Hodges to be rested. My understanding is that Ben Hannant will be a chance to play depending on how many minutes he gets in Wednesday nights match. Last year Griffin employed the same tactic of resting his SOO stars after matches and it did seem to work wonders in getting the best out of his players at the business end of the season. The added benefit for the Broncos is that they have the squad depth to manage this and are definitely not afraid of throwing young guys into the line of fire to give them a taste of first grade.

Recent History
Overall = Storm 18 - Draw 1 -  Broncos 11
Last 5 games = Storm 4 - Broncos 1
At AAMI Stadium - Storm 1 - Broncos 1

Odds
TAB Sportsbet = Storm $1.45 Broncos $2.85
Centrebet = Storm $1.50 Broncos $2.65
Sportsbet = Storm $.148 Broncos $2.65

Verdict
By just measuring both teams on which stars will be backing up after Origin 1, it is very hard to take Brisbane. The odds suggest that the bookies believe Brisbane will run will the same team that was named on Tuesday. The bookies are smart and always do their research, otherwise they will lose lots of money and their jobs! There could be the late addition of perhaps Hannant but he did get through a lot of work in SOO. Melbournes stars will also be battle weary, but with Billy Slater not having the best game of his SOO career, he will be out to prove something here. Smith did play the full 80, like Cronk and Slater, but he was continually in the thick of the action. Cronk did have a fair bit of traffic directed his way but didn't have too much of an involvement otherwise. After this one the Storm don't play again until the following Sunday so expect their stars to be ready for a 9 day rest after this one. Brisbane will be strong, but I think that Melbourne will be stronger! 

Suggested Bet

Melbourne 1-12 @ $2.85


Value Bet = Melbourne 7-12 @ $5


First Try Scorer = Billy Slater @ $8.00 (obvious I know but hey he hasn't crossed in a while)


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

State of Origin 1 Betting Preview

Its that time of the year that Rugby League fans have been waiting for, one of the biggest games of the year and a game that definitely stops a nation. It is this reason why I generally do like to have similar betting patters to the Melbourne Cup. Firstly, I am not going to give a preview that is similar to the NRL games that I give during each round of the year. I think that most people are going to be flooded with plenty of information to make their own mind up about the game, I am simply only going to give a few suggestions and tips on what could help you make some money in the game. Now why would I compare this game to the Melbourne Cup betting wise? Simply because there will be a lot of money held on the event and you are going to hear every betting guru under the sun talking about "what the money has come for". Each year on the first Tuesday in November, I choose to only invest a small amount of money on a runner which I fancy and then have a few mystery trifecta's on the side. I leave the overall decision up the chance. I believe that it is far better to lose a small amount of money and enjoy the spectacle rather than invest a lot of money and not enjoy the event for what it is. So...it brings me to a few idea's and areas that will be behind my betting patterns on the game. Lets have a look at them:


First Try Scorers
There is 26 players on the field at any one time that can score this (27 if you include the penalty try option) and it can be very frustrating just taking one player and waiting to see if they become involved in the game. So I suggest a few tips to consider when placing your bets. 
QLD = Will definitely look to target Michael Jennings in defence. They will continually work him over and aim to tire him down throughout the match. It is for this reason alone that I would look to take either Justin Hodges ($11) (marking up against Jennings) or the winger playing outside of Hodges (something tells me that it will be Brent Tate($11)) to score first for QLD. The second method in taking a first try scorer I would consider would be that QLD could score early off a kick in the middle of the field which has forced pressure on the NSW back 3, so look for a player trailing through up the middle of the field to dive on a loose ball. This could either be Cooper Cronk ($21), Johnathan Thurston ($17) or Cameron Smith ($26). 
NSW = Definitely are going to play to their strengths and (apart from their forwards) it is definitely the individuals in their lineup. These players generally always back their ability and will be looking to stamp their authority early on in the game. I would look to Todd Carney ($17), Robbie Farrah ($26) or Jarryd Hayne ($11) to score first for NSW.


First Try Scorer/Margin Double
Origin matches are generally always close, especially game 1. So if you want to take a first try scorer and it isn't enough value for you, then look to add some by giving them a margin as well. If I were doing this, I would take a try scorer for both NSW and QLD and then have two margins (4 bets in total) - NSW 1-12 and QLD 1-12. Yes...this may cost a bit more money then your straight out First Try Scorer bet, but it can yield a larger return.


Margin & Winning Margin
This can provide value in an overall bet if my prediction of a close game is right. NSW 1-6 is paying $6.25 and QLD 1-6 $5.25 so either way their is value there. I honestly cannot see NSW winning by more that 6 points against a QLD team of this quality. But QLD may sneak out to a larger victory of around 7-12 points (also $5.25). So maybe QLD 1-12 is a better bet ($2.75).


Half/Full Double
Straight away, I think that it will be extremely hard for NSW to concede the lead at halftime and then fight back to win the game, especially down in Melbourne (possibly a strong pro-QLD crowd). Therefore I will rule out NSW/NSW and QLD/NSW. The two which I would be inclined to go for are NSW/QLD ($6.50) or QLD/QLD ($2.00).


Tri Bet
A good bet if you are predicting a close game and think that the winning margin will be no more than 6 points. It offers great value at $3.00 for either team to win under 6.5 points. Placing this bet allows you to sit back and enjoy the game (and hoping that it'll be really close).


Man of the Match
I generally do not like betting on this option because it is open to interpretation. In the past, I have seen the decision go totally against what 99.99% of the general public thought. Much like the very biased  3,2,1 points given on the Dally M voting procedure, the halves, hookers and outside backs generally rate the highest. So look to these players to win MOM. But don't forget the Paul Gallen factor, if NSW are to win then be sure that he will play an absolute blinder (I am guessing that he will do this regardless, although he is coming in under an injury cloud).


So there you go folks! I hope that this has allowed you to take some suitable choices that can yield you some money come Wednesday night. Please let me know of any feedback or thoughts that you might have. I would love to hear others opinions on the match.


Good luck!
Scooby
@scoobystips

NRL Round 11 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Cronulla Sharks Preview

Wait a minute...are you telling me that is is not time for SOO? Oh that's right, there is the spectacle of MNF to get through first before shifting focus towards Origin. We travel across to Homebush (the only Sydney game this weekend not at a suburban ground) to see the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs host the Cronulla Sharks. Both teams have had very different seasons compared to the expectations that were held for both coming in 2012. The Bulldogs recruited star coach Des Hasler to their ranks and set their sights on a top 8 finish, but after a very inconsistent season, they find themselves in the middle of the table. It is still early in the season, yet they have suffered injuries to key parts of their team. On the positive, they have played some very entertaining football this season and have looked a much better team compared to seasons gone by. Then you have the Sharks. Something happened in the offseason down in the south that coach Shane Flanagan should be credited with. This season the Sharks have looked like  men possessed! Possessed by good footballing ability and playing outstanding football. Full credit must go to everyone involved with the clubs because it has been a shift in their overall attitude that has worked wonders. In games this year they could have easily thrown in the towel and been beaten when they should have won. But not this year. The two games that spring to mind is their two recent games, a loss to Souths and a win over the Storm (the Storms first loss this season). Against the Bunnies, they kept coming and coming and coming; and many suggest that if it wasn't for a 5-star performance from Greg Inglis, the Sharks might've won. They then handed the Storm their first loss of the season in front of their home fans and minus inspirational captain Paul Gallen. They grounded out a tough victory beating them 12-10. Enter Todd Carney. He has been on fire in recent weeks and has been a major factor to the Sharks winning close games this season. But due to SOO duty, both those players miss out and others must step into the fold to overcome the Dogs at home.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - WWWLWLLLWL (Streak - 1 loss)

The Dogs go into this game after suffering an embarrassing loss to the Gold Coast Titans last week. They were very inconsistent in parts of the game and were a victim of poor handling errors and lack of application in defence. The Titans were brimming with confidence and did get a sniff of a victory early on and went on with the job from there. Des Hasler definitely has his work cut out for him this season as he has not had the added benefit of recruiting players that he wants at the club. Josh Morris is away on SOO duty and Luke McDougall takes his place in the centres. Sam Kasiano is playing this week after miraculously escaping suspension on a grade one dangerous contact charge. David Stagg has been named but is under an injury cloud coming into this one and Martin Taupau could come in for him. There is some talk around that their injured half Trent Hodkinson could make a surprise comeback early from injury so keep an eye out for that one. It would certainly be a big boost for their team if he was. Michael Ennis will be out to play a great game after missing out on SOO and having his form questioned, as well as certain people suggesting that he is playing injured.

Cronulla Sharks - LLWWWWWWLW (Streak - 1 win)

As mentioned above, the Sharks have been a remarkably different team this season. They do suffer a major blow this week with their two star players Todd Carney and Paul Gallen out on SOO duty. Last week coach Shane Flanagan called upon Wade Graham to fill Gallens boots at lock and now he asks him to step into the 5/8 role. Graham is no stranger to the halves and did start his career there before being shifted to the back row after putting on some decent size to cope with the rigours of the NRL season. Sam Tagataese moves into the second row and Jeremy Smith goes to lock and also assumes the captaincy. Special mention has to go to Jeff Robson at 7 as he is to be credited with steering the Sharks around the park this season with great direction. He has also had great support from Isaac De Gois at hooker. Both will play tomorrow night and will be a good combination to fall back on should the going get tough. They beat the Storm last week without Gallen and now have no Carney, but each time the Sharks have been questioned this season, more often than not, they have proved people wrong.

Recent History

Last 5 = Bulldogs 4 Sharks 1

At ANZ Stadium = Bulldogs 4 Sharks 3

Odds

TAB Sportsbet - Bulldogs $1.42 Sharks $2.75

Centrebet - Bulldogs $1.48 Sharks $2.72

Sportsbet - Bulldogs $1.48 Sharks $2.72

Verdict

MNF is another tough one to pick. If the Bulldogs want to go anywhere this season, they must put their hand up and win this game. Although the odds are heavily favoured in their direction, Cronulla will be putting up a good fight. They have shown great application in defence this season and without Gallen it surely does weaken the middle, but they were like this last week against an undefeated team. The Sharks will be putting their hand up for the job again this week. The Bulldogs will be looking to beat the Sharks through the middle of the field. They are very strong in this area and certainly have the forwards to sway the contest in their favour. But with what I have seen from the Sharks this year, it is hard to go past them for a victory.

Suggested Bet

Sharks +5.5 @ $2.10

Or

Sharks win @ $2.75

Good luck!

Scooby