The Melbourne Cup is “the race that stops a
nation” and with good reason. It has grown from strength to strength and we see
it getting to a point where international horses are filling out majority of
the field and people are coming from all parts of the world to see this great
show. In terms of quality racing though, one would argue that Derby Day is a
better day of quality racing with the best horses on show. But for the greater
public, this is it! No doubt there should be a public holiday all around Australia
(and not just in Victoria) for this event and some would even argue the
Wednesday as well, depending on how well the first Tuesday of November goes for
you. So as majority of eyes will be fixed to the TV or ears to the radio, a lot
of people will have invested some money on the race. No matter whether they are
a seasoned punter or your average person just wanting to have a “flutter” at a
horse because they like the name and/or colours. Perhaps it could even be a
jockey or trainer (no doubt Bart Cummings for most) that increases a person’s
interest or it could even be a lucky number. What ever it is, one thing is for
sure and that is that the total pool will be astronomical. You can read a
thousand different previews for the race on each different horse and have a
differing opinion on each. But that is what is great about this race, opinion
is divided and you can never be sure of where the winner is going to come from.
So how do you go about picking a winner for this great race? Well for starters,
you should take notice to what every single person has to say…because for this
race, everyone becomes an instant expert because of what they have read or
heard from a “big punting friend”. Truth is, there is always bound to be a few
people who are right with their tips and full credit must go to them. At the
end of the day though, a lot of luck is involved. Whether that is the barrier
the horse draws or how the race is run, etc. there is always going to be a
certain amount of it involved. There is no better advertisement for luck than
the outcome of the 2011 Cup where Dunaden got home by the slimmest of margins.
So am I going to tip you a winner? I could very well do so but I am hoping to
give readers a guide as to how to invest on the big race. From a regular punter
like myself, I tend to only invest a small amount of money on the race and
enjoy the spectacle for what it is worth. So what’s listed below is simply a
guide and a few extra though on how you should go about this great race.
My Overall tip:
Ethiopia – I have backed
this horse since the end of August and I think that he is tracking along very
nicely. He ran very well in the Cox Plate when the race was not run to suit him
and he is only very lightly raced. Who knows where he can pop up towards the
end of the race? I am confident enough to say that he will be close enough to
heighten my interest and I like the odds that are on offer for him. He is
advantaged by the light weight that he will carry and has a barrier to suit his
style. The only query for a few people is the jockey, but I take confidence in
the fact that connections have chosen to keep him aboard rather than go for a
high profile jockey. To me, this guy knows the horse better than most!
International Horses with a chance:
Dunaden – Last years winner has plenty of
potential and is a fantastic horse. In saying that, he is a top chance to get
the cash. The only querry for him is the weight that he will have to carry. It
is not beyond him but he will certainly have his work cut out for him.
Americain – 2010 Melbourne Cup winner and
was placed 4th last year. One thing is for sure, he will run the
trip right out. The thing that this horse has going for him is that he has
Damien Oliver on board to guide him home. Be wary if it raining, this bloke will
shoot straight to the top of my calculations as he runs very well in the wet.
Red Cadeaux – This horse was extremely
unlucky last year and it has been a long time for jockey Michael Rodd to think
about. He is at an advantage compared to the two horses mentioned above. He
will get the distance and is sure to be there is the finish. I like the chances
of this horse providing that Rodd is going to give it the same fantastic ride
that he gave it last year.
Other chances:
Green Moon – He is a very talented horse
but I don’t know whether he will be able to get the trip. The jockey Brett
Pebble is a very talented hoop who is yet to win the cup and this may just be
his chance down at the weights and with his engine.
Maluckyday – Finished 2nd to
Americain in 2010 and was gallant with that run. He is down in the weights and
capable of a big finish. Be sure that he will get back in the running. The
reason why I am warming to him is because he made some very good ground late in
the Geelong Cup, on a track where it was almost impossible to do so. Either
way, he is capable of anything (if he is feeling right!).
Kelinni – Always be wary of the horse that
runs and wins the Lexus Stakes on Derby Day. This horse did this and granted
himself a start in this great race. May be one for the multiples on the day as
he has finished in the first four at 17 of 18 starts and won eight of them!
Glenn Boss goes aboard and he certainly knows how to win this race.
Try for a Trifecta = I recommend that you
through on a few mystery boxed trifectas and not look at them until after the
conclusion of the race. They will cost you $6 per ticket and you can have a
shot at winning a mountain of money as it will return you 100% of the dividend.
Do the math and don’t go over the top in these investments, if is meant to be
then lady luck will be shining on you!
Hopefully it has given you some insight and
perhaps a better chance at winning. With all the betting that is going on, make
sure that you enjoy the race for what it is!
Good luck!
Scooby
