NRL Round 11 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Sydney Roosters Preview

Sunday footy action kicks off at Brookvale Oval as a battle of the beaches when the Sea Eagles take on the Rooster boys from Bondi. Many fans will openly admit that they couldn't care less for this game as more often than not, they are the most hated teams by NRL fan! But it is not up to me to pass judgement on this and I am simply going to look at the great rugby league that is on offer. Both teams do have some players missing to SOO (as is the whole theme of the weekend). Needless to say, it is still bound to be a great game of football.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles - WWLLLWLWWW (Streak - 3 wins)

Manly are missing 4 players to SOO duty. The main being the two Stewart brothers, as well as Tony Williams and Jamie Buhrer. They do offset these losses with the return of Kieran Foran to the starting lineup after a few weeks out with a hamstring injury. His brother Liam, who has been filling the 5/8 role in his absence moves back to an extended bench. Other changes include Dean Whare moving to fullback, Daniel Harrison and Joe Galuvao coming into the back row. Many people considered Anthony Watmough very hard done by in missing out on SOO selection, but he will definitely be out to prove a point and especially at a time when many have considered his ability to offload in the tackle. Although the Eagles have 4 players away to selection, they are still strong in all areas of the field.

Sydney Roosters - WLWLWWLLWL (Streak - 1 loss)

Most notably missing from the Roosters lineup is their halfback Mitchell Pearce. Daniel Mortimer comes into the starting side to fill in for Pearce and he has been chomping at the bit to gain a full time NRL position since leaving the Parramatta Eels when his form was questioned for several months. Many believe that it was a very bold move and are willing him to succeed as he has taken the harder road in establishing himself as a worthy first grader. Apart from that, the Roosters have named Tautau Moga in the starting side after he gained a shock (but most overdue) selection from NSW Cup. There are many who believe that this kid will be bigger than Ben Hur once he gets going, but until then, we wait in anticipation. The Roosters are also travelling back from a bruising encounter with the Warriors in NZ last week. It was a tough game and many thought that they were unlucky as a  result of certain refereeing blunders. So they will have added motivation going into this one.

Recent History

Last 5 Games - Manly 4 Roosters 1

At Brookvale Oval - Manly 33 Roosters 11

Odds

TAB Sportsbet - Manly $1.45 Roosters $2.85

Centrebet - Manly $1.46 Roosters $2.80

Sportsbet - Manly $1.46 Roosters $2.80

Verdict

I believe that the Roosters present a lot of value starting the match at $2.80, but when you look at facts around this game, perhaps this price is well represented. They certainly will make Manly work for their 2 points in this one and they are a young team brimming with confidence. But what has been missing form this Manly team in recent weeks is stability in the halves. Now they get this back this week. Foran joins Cherry-Evans and they will provide direction around the back and will work well with Matt Ballin at hooker. Manly should be too strong in this one, with greater experience getting them over the line.

Suggested Bet

Manly -5.5 @ $1.75

or

Manly 1-12 @ $3.00

Good luck!

Scooby

NRL Round 11 St George-Illawarra Dragons v South Sydney Rabbitohs Preview

The 3pm main game on Sunday has the Rabbits taking a trip across to the Dragons Kograh home ground. One of the great suburban grounds out there and this match it sure to live up to the expectations. Again, this contest is limited as both teams are missing a host of players through SOO duty and injury, nonetheless, the two teams still have relatively strong lineups. I know it isn't even halfway through the season yet, but this is a big game for both teams in terms of which path they take for the rest of the season.


St George Illawarra Dragons - WLWWLLWWLL (Streak - 2 Losses)
The Dragons have a point to prove. After a MNF defeat at the hands of Penrith, they will be looking to bounce back and give s strong performance in this one. They will have to do so with a lot of changes made to their lineup from last week. Trent Merrin and Ben Creagh are out due to SOO selection and their still is a cloud hanging over Jamie Soward after he was a late withdrawal last week. He has been named and I am lead to believe that he will play because with so many other key players out, they can ill-afford to lose a play maker. There is also a whisper around that Beau Scott may make an early return from injury. They have named Jermey Latimore at prop, as well as Jake Marketo and Leeson Ah Mau in the second row. Cameron King comes onto an extended bench.


South Sydney Rabbitohs - LLWLWWLWWB (Streak - 2 wins)
First and foremost, the Rabbitohs suffer two major set backs. Star players Greg Inglis and David Taylor are taken to SOO and their presence would definitely lead one to back the Bunnies 110%. But Souths do not lose too must by moving Nathan Merritt to fullback in place of Inglis. Obviously there is a major divide between the two in terms of ability, but many believe that Merritt is the unluckiest player not to be picked for SOO. He is in the 3 week of a return from injury and is beginning to get into the swing of things. Souths also are boost by the return of pommy import Sam Burgess to the team. Although he did play against the Sharks two weeks ago, he now moves into the starting team. Nathan Peats has been named on an extended bench.


Recent History
Last 5 - Dragons 3 wins Rabbitohs 2 wins
At WIN Jubilee - Dragons 2 Rabbitohs 0


Odds
TAB Sportsbet - Dragons $2.05 Rabbitohs $1.80
Centrebet - Dragons $1.91 Rabbitohs $1.91
Sportsbet - Dragons $1.94 Rabbitohs $1.90


Verdict
The Rabbits are the stronger team going into this one. I did make a point when analysing the Cowboys v Penrith game that the MNF-itis curse could strike. It is definitely hard to back up from the Monday game, if anything, it will act as a catalyst for the Dragons in spurring them into better performances. This is due to their poor performance against Penrith on Monday. Regardsless, Souths will have the benefit of the week off and although they are missing two key players, they still retain a strong pack of forwards. This includes one of the best hookers this year Isaac Luke leading them up the middle.


Suggested Bet
Souths +1.5 @ $1.75


or (for value)


Souths 7-12 @ $6.25


Good luck!


Scooby

NRL Round 11 North Queensland Cowboys v Penrith Panthers

Super Saturday has been reduced this weekend and leaves us with a Shocking Saturday. Nonetheless the footy rolls on and we take a trip north to watch the Cowboys take on the Panthers. One is left to imagine what this contest could've been with so many star players missing from both teams due to SOO duty. But that is the nature of the gruelling NRL season and more often than not, the club that has depth will be better off in the long run.

North Queensland Cowboys

The Cowboys fulfilled my prediction of the best bet of Round 10 and delivered an emphatic victory over the Newcastle Knights. The Cowboys are missing 4 players to Origin duty, and they are 4 players that always turn up each week with one desire to win. Most influential of the 4 is obviously Johnathan Thurston, who has shifted to 5/8 this season in all areas of the game (club and representative). Michael Morgan has been given the tough task of filling Thurston's shoes. Glenn Hall and Aston Sims have been asked to start in the front row this week with Matt Scott and James Tamou on Origin duty. KalifaFaifai Loa returns to the wing, in for Brent Tate and Antonio Winterstein shifts to right centre. There is no doubt that the Cowboys face an uphill battle in this one!

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers will be on a high after their golden-point victory against the Dragons in MNF. It was a long overdue victory and although it went down to the wire, they didn't deserve to lose. The Dragons weren't the same team that we are use to seeing in seasons gone by, but it still does require a lot of poise to get a team across the line. The Panther showed this on Monday. A lot of talk this week has surrounded Michael Jennings and his demotion to NSW Cup and subsequently being selected in the NSW team. But he wasn't present (at least on the field anyway) for their win on MNF so the only change is the expected omission of Luke Lewis who is also on Origin duty. This causes Cameron Ciraldo to return from injury and take his place in the back row. There was speculation leading into Mondays game that Luke Walsh would make a return from injury and although he didn't, one is lead to believe that he will make a return in this one so stay switched on regarding whether or not he boards a plane north.

Recent History

Last 5 = Cowboys 2 wins - Panthers 3 wins
At Dairy Farmers Stadium = Cowboys 5 wins Panthers 9 wins

Odds

TAB Sportsbet - Cowboys $1.47 Panthers $2.75
Centrebet - Cowboys $1.50 Panthers $2.67
Sportsbet - Cowboys $1.48 Panthers $2.72

Verdict

The Panthers looked good at times on Monday and did have a few tries disallowed which could have made them look even better. Hooker Kevin Kingston has been dynamic out of dummy half this season and that is set to continue. The Panther also have a very big forward pack and will look to dominate the Cowboys early who will be lacking some size up front. In saying that, some Cowboys players will have something to prove with their omission from SOO, most notably Tariq Simms. Without taking too much of a diversion away from this game, it was amazing that Simms was not picked and he will not be backing down from any challenge this weekend. The Cowboys are also at home and the Panthers are coming off a short turn around and could suffer from MNF-itis, whereby the two teams struggle the following round after MNF. I have definitely been in two minds about this one and the omission of the 4 key players is a big factor for the Cowboys, but I am going to stick with them and suggest that the Cowboys can get over the line as they will be the more dominant team in the middle of the park.

Suggested Bet

Cowboys -5.5pts @ $1.75

Good luck!

Scooby

NRL Round 11 West Tigers v NZ Warriors Preview

Round 11 offers us only a few games as the SOO season begin on the 23rd of May. There is only 5 games for NRL fans to watch and more importantly, only a few chances to bet. Many punters this weekend may choose to turn to either Super Rugby or AFL to make some money, but be careful, unless you have a decent understanding and rationale for what you are placing your money on, then it probably isn't worth it. Nonetheless, there is going to be some great football played this weekend and I have no doubt that many punters will be suffering a loss after the round last week which saw 3 upsets.

Friday night footy delivers us a stand alone fixture at one of the traditional homes of rugby league, Leichhardt Oval. The Warriors come across after two solid wins at home and will be looking to make it 3-on-the-trot against the Tigers. The Tigers have the benefit of a bye week and will be looking to play themselves into some form. They will definitely have a great crowd  on hand to watch and you can be sure that it will be a hostile environment for the Warriors.

West Tigers- WLLLLLWWWB (Streak - 3 wins)

The West Tigers are another team which has failed to live up to expectation this season. They were installed as preseason favorites but now have been blown out of the water due to poor form. But one thing the Tigers have proven over the years is that they know how to get the job done at the business end of the season but I hope they just aren't leaving their run too late. This week throws a spanner in the works with Robbie Farrah being called into the NSW team. Pat Politoni is called into the squad in his absence, Tom Humble has been named at hooker, Chris Lawerence at 5/8 and Matt Utai is on the bench. Now that is a heap of changes! It is especially surprising that Lawerence has been named in the halves with Benji Marshall. I have no doubt that he is up to the task as well as being able to gell well with Benji Marshall, but what coach Tim Sheens is thinking of this move remains to be seen. Without Farrah, they will struggle with their normal "fast-style" football out from dummy half that has them going forward over the advantage line with each hit up; and without that, it will be difficult for the halves to create anything that will produce points.

NZ Warriors - LWLWLLWLWW (Streak - 2 wins)

As mentioned earlier, the Warriors are in some winning form. Warriors teams of the past have always offered so much potential but have normally fallen victim of inconsistent performances. This week introduces only two changes to their lineup. Glen Fisiiahi takes a starting position at fullback in the absence of both superstar Kevin Locke and Jerome Roparti. Sam Rapira also makes a return to the bench. Apart from that, the Warriors field the same team that prevailed in an exciting match against the Roosters the week before. Of course, they are still without hooker Nathan Friend, but with boom centre Konrad Hurrell starting to come into his own, they look a dangerous prospect. Also, don't be thrown off by the inclusion of youngster Fisiiahi into the line up. He is playing some great football in NSW Cup. He can produce a critical mistake from time to time, but he has scored 18 tries in 8 games this season in the reserve competition.


Recent History
Tigers - 3 Wins Warriors - 2 Wins
At Leichhardt Oval = Tigers 2 Warriors 1

Odds
TAB Sportsbet - Tigers $1.91 Warriors $1.91
Centrebet - Tigers $1.85 Warriors $2.00
Sportsbet - Tigers $1.83 Warriors $2.00

Verdict
The Warriors are the form team in this battle. Whilst they haven't been overly impressive in their wins, they have got the job done against two teams which have made them work for their 2 points. The West Tigers haven't shown too much this year to have compliments flying their way and without Farrah, the job does seem beyond them. They always grow another leg when they play at Leichhardt Oval, so be wary of that. With that in mind, it should be a very close game. Both teams have a tendency to also let in some points so it could be high scoring. I won't definitely say that the Tigers will lose, but it will be hard to put my money on them with so many factors working against them.

Suggested Bet
Warriors 1-6 points @ $5.75


or


Warriors 1-12 @ $3.25






Good luck


Scooby


PS = Stay tuned for my SOO preview which will come on Tuesday 22/5/12

NRL Round 10 Newcastle Knights v North Queensland Cowboys Preview

Saturday night we take a trip to Hunter region to witness the Newcastle Knights hosting the North Queensland Cowboys. Wayne Bennett certainly has a very tough task ahead of him for the remainder of the season. He is undoubtable one of the best coaches that I have seen and does have the potential to get the best out of unheralded players. But the Knights also have a horrific injury toll to work against, losing Kurt Gidley and Danny Buderus in recent weeks. The Cowboys have been up and down like a yo-yo this year and look to build on a solid outing last week against the Dragons. Both teams have players with SOO on their mind, but many are not really pushing for selection. Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott are both incumbents of the QLD team are whilst they aren't pushing for selection, they will definitely be hoping to get through this game injury-free. For NSW, Tariq Sims and James Tamou will be doing everything possible to claim a ticket down to Melbourne for the clash. But if the team is picked on form, they are a certainty to be picked as at times, they have proven unstoppable after returning from a season ending injury last season (Simms) and gaining international selection (Tamou).

Newcastle Knights

The Knights were the team that promised so much at the beginning of the year and are yet to deliver. Along with the West Tigers, they have been a real disappointment this season and are in doubt of even becoming contenders for the premiership. In all fairness though, they do have a casualty ward with over $2million worth of talent. Going into this game, there are a few changes to the team. Neville Costigan moves back to lock and Matt Hilder comes into the starting side at hooker. There has been a few changes in the outside backs also. Wes Naiqama has been dropped and Junior Sa'u comes into the centers. Joel Edwards has been rubbed out for one game after taking an early guilty plea for a grade one throw and Evarn Tuimavave has recovered from a corked thigh to start in the front row and Richie Fa'aoso moves back to the bench. Although the Knights are at home, it does seem like a tough task based on their absence of quality players and recent performances this year. The last being a dour affair away to the Roosters, losing 24-6.

North Queensland Cowboys

The Cowboys started the season very slowly, but are beginning to come into their own. They have put in some quality performances in recent weeks and are certainly beginning to come into their own against quality opposition. They gave it to the Dragons last week, whilst in round 8 they fought back hard against the Rabbitohs and lost in fast-finishing fashion 20-16, after being down 20-nil at HT. Glen Hall gains a recall from QLD Cup to take his place on the bench and unfortunately, exciting young hooker James Segeyaro has been ruled out for a week for a hit on Ben Hornby the previous week.

Recents History
Last 5 games - Newcastle 3 Cowboys 2
At Hunter Stadium - Newcastle 10 Cowboys 4

Odds
TAB Sportsbet - Newcastle $2.30 Cowboys $1.65
Centrebet - Newcastle $2.30 Cowboys $1.65
Sportsbet - Newcastle $2.25 Cowboys $1.67

Verdict
This is my BET OF THE WEEK! Cowboys should be able to handle the Knights easily. Whilst one should be wary of ruling out a Wayne Bennett coached team, I think that with all things working against them at this stage of the season, the Cowboys will be too strong. Then again stranger things have happened and thats why we watch the great game of rugby league.

Suggested Bet
Cowboys -2.5 @ $1.90


Good luck!


Scooby

NRL Round 10 New Zealand Warriors v Sydney Roosters Preview

The first game on Saturday comes from across the "ditch" with the young Roosters taking on a confident Warriors team. It promises to be a great match up between two exciting teams who like to throw "caution into the wind" and obtain points by any means necessary. Such has been the case with all my previews this week, many players will again be pressing further claims for SOO selection. At the end of the 2011 season after the Warriors made a great run to the finals, James Maloney was touted as a possible contender for the 5/8 for the Blues (even though Jamie Soward was the incumbent and had a decent enough series). But good form has eluded him this season and his Origin claims have definitely been the victim of the Warriors inconsistency on the field. On the other side, you have Mitchell Pearce (almost a certainty for NSW halfback) and Anthony Minichiello; who is a chance after displaying some wonderful form this year and has added spark to the Roosters attack from the back.

New Zealand Warriors - LWLWLLWLW (Streak - 1 win)

For the first time this season, James Maloney meets the team that he will join for the 2013 season. No doubt he will be out there to not only make a great  impression on his coach but to prove the doubters wrong on his SOO credentials. They also have a few injuries to contend with. Exciting fullback Kevin Locke is again ruled out with a sternum injury and hooker Nathan Friend will be out for at least 6 weeks as he broke his jaw in the opening minutes against the Broncos. True to the toughness of the little rake, he played the remaining minutes with the injury (playing very well) and refused to come from the field. That is the only change to the Warriors team that beat the Broncos the previous week. They will have the added bonus of a week at home without travel and a 7 day turn around to amp up their preparation for this game.

Sydney Roosters - WLWLWWLLW (Streak - 1 win)

The Roosters have an unchanged line-up from the week before when they handed the Knights a loss in a game in which they was dour at times, but enough to get the win. The one thing that will be working against them is a very short turn around between Sunday to Saturday night, throw in the road trip across to NZ and their preparation for this game is limited. Cue an unchanged winning team, and the Roosters may have the balance to get over the line. Their forwards will be powerful up front and with their 1,6,7 & 9 in good form, they will have a good platform to work from.

Recent History
Last 5 games - Warriors 3 Roosters 2
At Mt Smart Stadium - Warriors 9 Roosters 4

Odds

TAB Sportsbet - Warriors $1.40 Roosters $3.00

Centrebet - Warriors $1.42 Roosters $2.95

Sportsbet - Warriors $1.40 Roosters $3.05

Verdict

Going with the Warriors in this one. They haven't exactly been a model team this season, but I think that the Roosters will struggle with the short turn around and the trip over to NZ. Also, their performance against a pretty poor Newcastle side doesn't exaclt fill a person with confidence. Also expect a high scoring affair. The Warriors let in a lot of tries but they also have the potential to score a lot as well.

Suggested Bet
Warriors -7.5 @ $1.90

or

Warriors HT/FT - Warriors/Warriors @1.80

Good luck!

Scooby

NRL Round 10 Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans Preview

The second game of the Brisbane double-header delivers us home game for the Bulldogs north of the boarder. It isn't the first time that they have done this and it does seem like a good money raising activity, especially when the Titans would have limited supporters in Sydney. Add in the Broncos home game beforehand, and you are looking at a crowd difference of around 30 000-35 000. Now convert that into dollars and it seems like a great plan to make money. The players will certainly be happy to play infront of a massive crowd at a great stadium for rugby league. Lets have a look!

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Des Hasler has again gone with the same team that gave it to Parramatta in Round 9, beating them 46-12. What was shaping as a good contest in the first 20 minutes of that game soon became a walk in the park for the Dogs running in 3 tries in 6 minutes before halftime. The Bulldogs will be full of confidence after that performance and will be looking to do the same again against the Titans. Martin Taupau has been added to an extended Bulldogs bench of 5, with one to drop off before kick off. Michael Ennis and Josh Morris will be looking to further press their claims for State of Origin selection with a big game this Friday. Morris scored 3 tries last week and displayed some impressive speed to break the line several time and also be there to support his team mates and finish a linebreak with a try. Ennis has come under speculation this year with some suggesting that he is not playing at 100% and definitely not playing to the form that saw him selected as the incumbant hooker for the Blues last year. He is a fierce competitor though and while current locked in a battle for the number 9 jersey, you can be assured that the Bulldogs captain will want to lead from the front again.

Gold Coast Titans
Everything that could have gone wrong this year for the Titans, almost has.  They will be again without their halfback Scott Prince and have a rookie combination in the halves of young Jordan Rankin and Aidan Sezer. Both players were standouts in the U/20s Toyota Cup, but are quickly finding out that the NRL is a major step up for them to make a name for themselves. They will have a platform set for them behind a pretty decent forward pack on paper, but a game of rugby league is never played on paper. The Titans have a wealth of experience in the forwards but can be guitly of being "soft" this year by not dominating other teams by going forward. Last week they stepped up against the West Tigers, losing 15-14 in golden point extra-time, but the Tigers have also been accused of being "soft" (this isn't an ambush!). The Titans will have players pushing for Origin selection for both NSW and QLD, namely Greg Bird and Jamal Idris (NSW) and Nate Myles and Ashley Harrison (QLD). The Titans do have some fantastic finishers out wide with speed to burn but they must get the job done on defence as well.


Recent History
Last 5 games: Bulldogs 3 Titans 2
At Suncorp Stadium: Bulldogs 2 Titans 1


Odds
TAB Sportsbet - Bulldogs $1.30 Titans $3.60
Centrebet - Bulldogs $1.34 Titans $3.35
Sportsbet - Bulldogs $1.33 Titans $3.40


Verdict
Too big and too strong! That is what the Bulldogs should be in this game. They have been the far superior team this season and seem to be playing with a lot more will and desire. Scott Prince may be a late inclusion to the Titans starting side for the clash and that could sway the markets and almost get the Bulldogs out to a decent enough price for you to throw your money on. They're playing with a lot of confidence and should be able to out play the Titans.


Suggested Bet
Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.90


Good luck!


Scooby